Travel to Financial Success

Here's the Real Reason Treasury Yields Are Rising (YouTube link ) Yield Curve Mystery: Why Did Yields Rise After the Fed Cut? The speakers in the video above are discussing the recent rise in the 10-year Treasury yield following the Federal Reserve's 50-basis-point interest rate cut. They propose four potential explanations for this unexpected yield increase: A Head Fake: The yield rise is temporary and will soon reverse. Bond Vigilantes: Investors are concerned about rising deficits and national debt, leading them to demand higher yields on government bonds. Market Repositioning: Investors who had bet on a recession are now selling bonds as the economic outlook improves. A New Market Paradigm: Investors are anticipating higher growth and inflation in 2025, leading to increased demand for higher-yielding bonds. The speakers from  DataTrek Research  lean towards the third or fourth explanation, suggesting that the market is shifting towards a new paradigm of stronger e...

How To Choose An Options Contract (YouTube link ) The above video offers a basic overview of options trading, focusing on key factors when choosing an options contract. Consider the various expiration dates available. The choice depends on your trading strategy. For weekly trades, focus on the nearest expiration. For swing trades, opt for a later expiration date based on your expectations. Key Points: Platform: The speaker recommends Interactive Brokers Pro (IBKR Pro) for its fast execution speeds . Options Chain: This is the interface where you view available options contracts. Key Metrics: The most essential metrics include last price, net change, delta, open interest, volume, theta, bid, and ask . Delta: Measures the sensitivity of an option's price to changes in the underlying asset's price.  In other words, delta shows how much an option's price changes for each $1 move in the underlying stock .  Relationship between option price sensitivity (delta) and premi...

Option trading basics: How to analyze Open interest (YouTube link ) Summary of Open Interest Open interest is the total number of outstanding contracts for a specific strike price on an options contract. It represents the number of buyers and sellers who have not yet closed their positions. How Open Interest is Used: Determining Support and Resistance: The strike price with the highest open interest on the put side is generally considered a support level , while the strike price with the highest open interest on the call side is considered a resistance level . Reasoning Behind Support and Resistance: When a strike price has a high open interest, it signifies a significant number of both buyers and sellers are actively trading at that level. This concentration of interest can create a strong support or resistance level. Support:  If the underlying asset's price drops below a put strike price with high open interest, option sellers may face potential losses. To avoid these ...

The FDIC data shows a significant increase in unrealized losses at banks , primarily due to the Fed's interest rate hikes . These losses have reached a peak of $655 billion but have since declined slightly to $512 billion. While interest rate cuts could help mitigate these losses, they may also negatively impact bank profitability . There are concerns about potential risks beyond unrealized losses, such as a recession or financial crisis, which may be influencing the Fed's decision to cut rates. FDIC Quarterly 2024 Vol 18 No 2 Notes HTM: Stands for Held to Maturity . These securities are purchased with the intent to hold them until maturity. Unrealized gains or losses on HTM securities are not recognized in the income statement. AFS: Stands for Available for Sale . These securities can be sold at any time. Unrealized gains or losses on AFS securities are recognized in other comprehensive income, which is a part of equity. Proactively Assess Your Bank’s Financial Health with FA...

Video1.  Markets Are Too Complacent, Creating "A Recipe For Pain (YouTube link ) During his interview with Adam Taggart , Ted Oakley emphasized the potential pitfalls of a bear market. One thing I find about bear markets that people seem to forget is that they can come on quickly . They don't always have to crash, but they can descend rapidly . You might look up a few months later and realize how much the market has fallen. It's often when people lose their complacency and start to worry that the real pain begins. The biggest problem is that people become complacent when prices are high , and that's a recipe for trouble in the future . Historical Bear Markets and Corrections What does history teach us about corrections within bull markets (those that don't escalate into something more severe)? Goldman Sachs provides some insights:[1] Table 1 presents a historical overview of bear markets and corrections in the S&P 500 since the end of World War II. We iden...

Housing Demographics with John Burns’ Eric Finnigan (YouTube link ) Eric Finnigan leads demographics research at John Burns Research and Consulting, helping clients in the housing and real estate industries understand demand based on demographic trends. He views demographics as a predictive tool, likening it to a crystal ball for future trends. His interest in demographics began around 2013-2014 while working for a capital allocator firm. He analyzed demographic data to predict shifts in housing preferences, such as Millennials moving from urban areas to more affordable regions. Finnigan has been in the housing market research field since 2007, gaining significant experience during the subprime mortgage crisis. His career has been shaped by a deep dive into demographics and housing economics. Positive Housing Outlook: Rising Headship Rates The headship rate , which is the percentage of adults who are heads of households, is a key indicator for understanding demographics and housing d...

What The Huge Downward Revision In The Jobs Data Means For The Economy | Dr. Lacy Hunt (YouTube link ) In this interview, Lacy Hunt, a renowned economist, discusses the state of the US economy with Julia La Roche. Hunt begins by highlighting the significant flaws in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll data. The conversation then delves into broader economic issues, including the economic lifecycle and global economic factors. Key Takeaways from Lacy Hunt's Economic Analysis These are the main takeaways from Lacy Hunt’s interview The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll data is significantly flawed, with a five standard error miss in 2023. This has led to a misperception of the economy's health. There is a net negative national saving in the US, meaning the government's spending exceeds its income. This is a serious problem because it reduces resources available for investment and economic growth.    Government policies, such as deficit spending, have not bee...

How to Trade Options for Beginners: Covered Calls on thinkorswim® (YouTube link ) If you believe a stock price will decline, you can either: Short sell the stock, hoping to buy it back at a lower price. Buy a put option on the stock, giving you the right to sell the stock at a specific price if it declines.  Key Differences: Ownership: With short selling, you borrow the asset.  With put options, you buy a contract.   Leverage: Options often provide leverage, allowing investors to control a larger position with a smaller capital outlay compared to short selling.   Time Decay: Option prices are influenced by time decay, meaning the option's value decreases as it approaches expiration.    Both strategies aim to profit from a declining stock price , but they carry different risk and reward profiles . Short Selling: Betting on a Price Decline Short selling is a trading strategy where an investor borrows a security (like a stock) and immediately se...

Nectar-Rich New York Aster Attracts Pollinators The New York Aster ( Aster novi-belgii ) is a true old-time garden favorite, bringing a burst of color and charm to your landscape from summer all the way through fall. Bring color and life to your late summer garden (YouTube link ) Bring color and life to your late summer garden with Aster novi-belgii! This charming perennial boasts a multitude of benefits for your garden, making it a fantastic choice for both novice and experienced gardeners alike. A Haven for Pollinators: One of  New York Aster  greatest assets is its ability to attract a variety of pollinators. The flowers are rich in nectar, providing a valuable food source for bees, butterflies, and other beneficial insects. By planting Aster, you'll be supporting these vital creatures and contributing to a healthy ecosystem in your own backyard! Extends Your Garden's Beauty: Aster blooms later in the season, when many other plants begin to fade. Its vibrant light purple-...

What's Clipchamp Clipchamp is a user-friendly online video editor offered by Microsoft with powerful features that doesn't require software downloads.  It packs a punch for video editing, letting you: Trim & crop videos Add animated text Record voiceovers & subtitles Apply transitions & effects Use green screens Enhance audio Access stock media Low disk space culprit: Clipchamp's data usage Warning: Mind Your Hard Drive Space  Clipchamp can gobble up storage space on your computer for a couple of reasons: Cache: Clipchamp caches previews , project files, and other temporary data to speed things up when you're editing. This cache can grow large, especially if you've imported a lot of media files. IndexedDB : Clipchamp uses a browser technology called IndexedDB to store project data. In some cases, this data can become bloated or corrupted, leading to unnecessary storage use. Unlike the cache, messing with IndexedDB can potentially lead to losing ...

"Not what you look at, but what you see." — Ralph Waldo Emerson 𓆝 𓆟 𓆞 𓆝 𓆟 𓆞 𓆝 𓆟 𓆞 𓆝 𓆟 𓆞 𓆝 𓆝 𓆟 𓆞 𓆝 𓆟 𓆞 𓆝 𓆟 𓆞 𓆝 𓆟 𓆞 𓆝 " Not what you look at, but what you see . " - Ralph Waldo Emerson   This quote emphasizes that reality is subjective and what matters most is how we interpret what we experience. " The only thing you sometimes have control over is your perspective. You don't have control over your situation. But you can choose to see things in a different way . " - Buddha This quote highlights the power of perspective in shaping our experience of life . Even if we can't change a situation, we can choose how we view it. 𓆝 𓆟 𓆞 𓆝 𓆟 𓆞 𓆝 𓆟 𓆞 𓆝 𓆟 𓆞 𓆝𓆝 𓆟 𓆞 𓆝 𓆟 𓆞 𓆝 𓆟 𓆞 𓆝 𓆟 𓆞 𓆝 The Big Dream of the Tiny Boy Have you heard of Järnpojken ? It’s a tiny statue in Stockholm that perfectly illustrates the idea of perspective. Järnpojken, which means ‘Iron Boy’ in Swedish, is located in the courtyard of Stockholm ...

How to Complete IRS Form 8606 (for a Backdoor Roth IRA; YouTube link ) There are two key tax reports you'll want to receive for a Roth conversion: Form 1099-R from your custodian (the financial institution holding your traditional IRA): This form reports the total distribution amount from your traditional IRA. In the case of a Roth conversion, the distribution amount will represent the fair market value of your entire traditional IRA account (including contributions and earnings) on the conversion date. Box 7 of the 1099-R will likely have a code indicating a rollover or conversion (typically code "R"). Form 8606 (titled "Nondeductible IRAs"): This form, filed with your tax return, tells the IRS how much of your Roth conversion was from non-deductible contributions you previously made to your traditional IRA. It's important to report this correctly, as only the portion converted from earnings in your traditional IRA is taxable. This form he...

2023 tax rates for a single taxpayer (federal income tax rates in the United States are the same for 2023 and 2024) Scenario: Your taxable income is $12,000, placing you in the 12% tax bracket. Options: You could contribute more to a retirement account, thereby reducing your taxable income to below $11,001. Alternatively, you could perform a Roth conversion, pushing your taxable income up to the upper limit of $44,725. Weighing Roth Conversion vs. Traditional Contribution Here's a breakdown of the pros and cons for each option considering the potential sunset of favorable tax rates in 2025 and the benefits of Roth IRAs: Option 1: Traditional Retirement Account Contribution Pros: Lower your tax bill for 2024: This will put more money in your pocket now. Tax-deferred growth: Your contributions and earnings grow tax-deferred within the account. Cons: Tax on withdrawal: When you withdraw the money in retirement, you'll pay income tax at your then-current tax rate. RMDs: After rea...

Newsquawk reported on March 1st, 2024 that Goldman Sachs removed AAPL from its Conviction List. Conviction Buy List of  Goldman Sachs  Goldman Sachs offers a curated list of 20-25 stocks they believe hold strong buying potential, known as the Conviction Buy List. These stocks are  updated monthly , reflecting changes in the market. Analysts continuously evaluate companies and add or remove them from the list based on their outlook. Beyond Just Buys: A Balanced Approach Goldman Sachs also creates a Conviction Sell List to highlight stocks they believe may underperform the market. This balanced approach allows investors to consider both buying opportunities and potential risks. Diversification Across Industries The Conviction Buy List spans various sectors, giving investors exposure to a range of industries. From technology and healthcare to finance, consumer goods, and more, the list offers a diverse selection of potential investments. Conviction List as of 02/01/2024 Th...