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Showing posts from October, 2024

Riding the Volatility Wave: A VIX-Based Approach to Election Investing

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Here's the Real Reason Treasury Yields Are Rising (YouTube link ) Yield Curve Mystery: Why Did Yields Rise After the Fed Cut? The speakers in the video above are discussing the recent rise in the 10-year Treasury yield following the Federal Reserve's 50-basis-point interest rate cut. They propose four potential explanations for this unexpected yield increase: A Head Fake: The yield rise is temporary and will soon reverse. Bond Vigilantes: Investors are concerned about rising deficits and national debt, leading them to demand higher yields on government bonds. Market Repositioning: Investors who had bet on a recession are now selling bonds as the economic outlook improves. A New Market Paradigm: Investors are anticipating higher growth and inflation in 2025, leading to increased demand for higher-yielding bonds. The speakers from  DataTrek Research  lean towards the third or fourth explanation, suggesting that the market is shifting towards a new paradigm of stronger e...

Understanding Options Contracts

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How To Choose An Options Contract (YouTube link ) The above video offers a basic overview of options trading, focusing on key factors when choosing an options contract. Consider the various expiration dates available. The choice depends on your trading strategy. For weekly trades, focus on the nearest expiration. For swing trades, opt for a later expiration date based on your expectations. Key Points: Platform: The speaker recommends Interactive Brokers Pro (IBKR Pro) for its fast execution speeds . Options Chain: This is the interface where you view available options contracts. Key Metrics: The most essential metrics include last price, net change, delta, open interest, volume, theta, bid, and ask . Delta: Measures the sensitivity of an option's price to changes in the underlying asset's price.  In other words, delta shows how much an option's price changes for each $1 move in the underlying stock .  Relationship between option price sensitivity (delta) and premi...

Using Open Interest to Identify Support and Resistance

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Option trading basics: How to analyze Open interest (YouTube link ) Summary of Open Interest Open interest is the total number of outstanding contracts for a specific strike price on an options contract. It represents the number of buyers and sellers who have not yet closed their positions. How Open Interest is Used: Determining Support and Resistance: The strike price with the highest open interest on the put side is generally considered a support level , while the strike price with the highest open interest on the call side is considered a resistance level . Reasoning Behind Support and Resistance: When a strike price has a high open interest, it signifies a significant number of both buyers and sellers are actively trading at that level. This concentration of interest can create a strong support or resistance level. Support:  If the underlying asset's price drops below a put strike price with high open interest, option sellers may face potential losses. To avoid these ...