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Figure 1.  Energy spikes preceded almost every recession Below indicators will not try to time when the recession will come.  But, just add them to your prediction tool chest for monitoring purpose: CEO departures Bank layoffs [3,8,9] Heavy truck sales in the US are down   This is one of the metrics Lyn Alden Schwartzer watch, because it tends to be a leading recession indicator. [2] Inverted yield curve [2,4] IPO trouble [2,4] Some of these failed IPOs are another log on the recession risk bonfire, because now bondholders are at risk, employees are at risk, investors are starting to tone down their enthusiasm, etc. [2] High oil prices Energy spikes preceded almost every recession for the last 80 years. [10] Figure 1.  CEO departures tend be higher before the recession References An Interesting Recession Indicator The Music Is Winding Down, But Opportunities Exist HSBC to cut up to 10,000 jobs in drive to slash costs: FT Inverted Yield Curve ...

Figure 1.  Top 10 holdings of Renaissance IPO Index (source: Charles Schwab) The Renaissance IPO Index is a portfolio of companies that have recently completed an initial public offering ("IPO") and are listed on a U.S. exchange. Figure 2.  Recent IPOs are breaking down relative to the S&P 500 In [2], Bloomberg reported on 09/25/2019 that: The 2019 class of IPOs includes a number of so-called unicorns, including high-profile market entrants like Uber Technologies Inc., Lyft Inc., and Pinterest Inc. Together, the unprofitable IPOs have already raised the most cash of any year since at least 2000 , according to a Bloomberg analysis of listings worth $100 million or more. In [4] , Financial Times reported on 11/22/2019 that: But Bank of America investment strategist Jared Woodard offers a note of caution.  “ Just 14 per cent of US tech IPOs are profitable this year, the last time that happened was at the dotcom peak in 2000 and we all kn...

Video 1.  The Fourth Turning: Why American 'Crisis' May Last Until 2030 (YouTube link ) Video 2.  The Fourth Turning with Neil Howe on The Macro Show (YouTube link ) Video 3.  Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning Has Arrived (YouTube link ) According to the authors— Strauss and Howe , the Fourth Turning (roughly from 2008 to 2030) is a Crisis. This is an era of destruction, often involving war or revolution, in which institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival. 09/20/2021 SPX Monthly (source: @InvestingAngles) As Robert Prechter . noted in a study he published in 2012 on  Socionomic theory , proposes that unconscious social mood regulates social actions (including our willingness to buy stocks ). Interestingly, it seems to match approximately the prediction of the  Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) which foresees that, after stock market reaches a peak in the year around 2022, it then will ...

"In The Arena" with Darius Dale & Daryl Jones (YouTube link ) Hedgeye 's GIP model (i.e.  G rowth, I nflation, P olicy Model) is a regime-based sort of framework. Both Dalio's Reserch and Hedgeye findings have proven that the two most important factors for investors to track the future financial market returns is the rates of change in: Growth  Inflation . as policymakers typically respond to subsequent levels on a lag. Quad Growth Inflation Nickname 1 Accelerating Decelerating Goldilocks 2 Accelerating Accelerating Reflation 3 Decelerating Accelerating Stagflation 4 Decelerating Decelerating Deflation Table 1. Hedgeye’s Quads are the core of their proprietary GIP Model (Growth, Inflation, Policy) Hedgeye’s inflation rate‑of‑change metric—a core i...

REITs are influenced by real estate-specific factors like property demand, rental income, and interest rates, which differ from broader equity or bond market dynamics. This article's discussion of low interest rates reflects the pre-2019 environment, where REITs benefited from a low-rate regime. However, by 2025, rising interest rates have pressured REIT valuations, making this point less applicable today. ( Updated on May 20, 2025 ) In [10], Charles Schwab provides the case for REITs.  Here are the four reasons why REITs might deserve a place in your portfolio: Diversification REITs rarely perform in lockstep with stocks or bonds due to the below reasons: In recent years, the divergence was partly the result of low interest rates, which caused yield-hungry investors to drive REIT prices higher. REITs tend to follow the real estate cycle, which typically lasts a decade or more, whereas bond- and stock-market cycles typically last an average of roughly 5.75 years. Income ...

Relative Performance of Equities to Commodities The above chart shows cyclical moves in commodities relative to investing in the S&P 500 , which can lead to potential investment opportunities in commodities. The periods 1970-1974, 1987-1990 and 1998-2008 show outperformance of commodities relative to the S&P 500 on the order of 800% occur with cyclical regularity. Today’s geopolitical and economic conditions are deteriorating exacerbated by the US-China trade war and Hong Kong protests which are accelerating the reallocation to commodity. Participating in this asset class transition could lead to dramatic investment performance outcomes that could impact investors and their lifestyles like those previous periods 1970-1974, 1987-1990 and 1998-2008 which encompassed four historic equity bear markets and commodity rallies. Figure 2.  Soybean growing/export seasons (Brazil vs US) Price Dynamics of Commodities Each commodity has different price dynamics and co...

See Also: INVESTMENT IDEAS2022 (GS)