Friday, September 27, 2019

Fourth Turning—Crisis from 2008 to 2030

Video 1.  The Fourth Turning: Why American 'Crisis' May Last Until 2030 (YouTube link)



Video 2.  The Fourth Turning with Neil Howe on The Macro Show (YouTube link)



Video 3.  Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning Has Arrived (YouTube link)


According to the authors—Strauss and Howe, the Fourth Turning (roughly from 2008 to 2030) is a Crisis. This is an era of destruction, often involving war or revolution, in which institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival.



09/20/2021 SPX Monthly (source: @InvestingAngles)

As Robert Prechter. noted in a study he published in 2012 on Socionomic theory, proposes that unconscious social mood regulates social actions (including our willingness to buy stocks).

Interestingly, it seems to match approximately the prediction of the Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) which foresees that, after stock market reaches a peak in the year around 2022, it then will go through the a-b-c correction phase.  This correction phase will last roughly from 2022 to 2037.

On 10/02/2022, Avi—an EWT analyst—had commented that:[12]

One way or another, I am expecting a major bear market to begin and last at least 7-8 years, and potentially as long as 20.

Final Thoughts


Finally, if the authors Strauss and Howe are correct, "maybe" (note: not a prediction) the next debt will be burst by a civil unrest or another war in the future.

Updated (04/08/2020):
Analyst Dales Roberts has claimed that fighting Covid-19 is World War III in his article [2,3].
In a Foreign Policy piece, Nicholas Mulder highlights the way in which nations around the world have gone into wartime mindsets to fight the pandemic, both to control their populations and to mobilize resources and production. He connects the steps being taken today, such as enacting the Defense Production Act and instinctively using debt-financed federal spending to support the embattled citizenry, with those taken during the two world wars of the twentieth century. 
On a CNN report —U.S. Warships Enter Disputed Waters of South China Sea as Tensions With China Escalate, it states that:
  • The move comes as a war of words between the United States and China over the coronavirus pandemic intensifies

Video 4.  Elliot Wave and the Kondratiev Wave Together (YouTube link)


References

  1. If You Want Trump Out, You Need To Sell Your Stocks
  2. Fighting COVID-19 is World War 3 – Weekend Reads.
  3. The Reasons Why The Markets Will Go Much, Much Lower From Here
  4. The Coronavirus War Economy Will Change the World
  5. U.S. Warships Enter Disputed Waters of South China Sea as Tensions With China Escalate
    • The move comes as a war of words between the United States and China over the coronavirus pandemic intensifies.
  6. Kiril Sokoloff: ‘There will have to be massive debt relief’
    • In an interview with Rana Foroohar, the famous Wall Street strategist Kiril Sokoloff mentioned this book "The Fourth Turning" which he described as a very prophetic book.  
  7. "Losing The Bottom": Market Capitulates On The Idea That Normalization Is Ever Again Possible
    • This is also the reason why we remain steadfastly in the corner of hard assets as a world in which the only backstop of economic, monetary, political and social stability is accelerating dilution of fiat, means that currency collapse is only a matter of time.
  8. Why the US risks a new epidemic of violence (ft.com)
  9. The Changing World Order - Where We Are by Ray Dalio
  10. 10 "Big" Things For Stocks In The Coming Decade 
  11. What Will Not Change
  12. Sentiment Speaks: Market Approaching A Potentially Major Bottom (10/02/2022)

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