Recession Watch—Inverted Yield Curve

A yield curve inverts when long-term interest rates drop below short-term rates, indicating that investors are moving money away from short-term bonds and into long-term ones. This suggests that the market as a whole is becoming more pessimistic about the economic prospects for the near future.

When looking at inverted yield curve, it can be any pair of long-term interest rates and short-term interest rates. In this article, we will look at the inverted yield curve between 30-year and 10-year treasury bond yields.

Inverted Yield Curve Precedes the Recession

The Fed's ongoing rate hiking will eventually trigger the next recession. Historically, an inverted yield curve - the difference between 10-year and 2-year bond yields - has been one of the single-best leading indicators of an impending downturn.

Figure 1. Inverted Yield Curve Precedes the Recession

The Slope of the Yield Curve

Conceptually, the slope of the yield curve is a rough approximation of the stance of U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve controls the level of short-term interest rates. Markets determine the level of long-term interest rates based on underlying macro fundamentals.

Therefore, the slope of the yield curve can tell us a lot about the market's expectations for economic growth and inflation. There are three basic shapes the yield curve can take:

• Normal, upward sloping yield curve
• Economy is growing and investors are confident
• Steep yield curve
• A sharply upward sloping, or steep yield curve, has often preceded an economic upturn
• Steep yield curve that is so beneficial to banks and levered bond investments.
• Flat yield curve
• Warning sign that an economy is under duress
• Inverted yield Curve
• The economic outlook is very bleak

Figure 2. Yield curve between 30Y and 10Y Treasury Yield (Courtesy: stockcharts.com)

Inverted Yield Curve between $UST30Y and $UST10Y

As Helene Meisler commented on 09/24/2022 (see Figure 2):

With the caveat that I am not a bond expert, I would note that for the last 3 days the yield on the 30 yr has been less than the yield on the 10 yr, something that hasn't happened since mid June (when it did so for 2 days).

And Guy LeBas replied:

10s30s inversion is very rare. If you model the spread historically, it’s a highly mean reverting process to about 45bps (see Figure 3).

Figure 3. Yield curve between 30Y and 10Y Treasury Yield (Courtesy: stockcharts.com)

Global Recession Outlook from Citi

Inverted yield curve normally precedes the recession—note that 2y10y inversion happened since July 2022. However, as said by Simon White at Variant Perception in [44]:

The lead time between an inversion and the onset of an actual recession is highly variable, White stated, anywhere from 4 to 6 months to 2 years before a recession takes hold.

In Figure 4, it shows Citi Bank's global recession outlook.

Figure 4. Global Recession Outlook from Citi

References

1. Cleveland Financial Stress Index
2. Fed "Workhorse" Model Says Odds of Recession in Next Year Only 3.56%; What are the Real Odds?
• The report failed to mention the most practical of practical issues: It's damn hard for the 3-month to invert with 10-year treasuries when the Fed has artificially held short-term yields closet to zero.
3. The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Some Practical Issues (New York Fed)
4. The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator (New York Fed)
5. Looking Beyond Circular Feedback Loops In The Market
6. On The Dispersion, Or Lack Thereof, of Economic Weakness (Tim Duy's Fed Watch)
7. So You Think A Recession Is Imminent, Yield Curve Edition (Tim Duy's Fed Watch)
8. So You Think A Recession Is Imminent, Employment Edition (Tim Duy's Fed Watch)
9. 3 Charts All Investors Should See
• US credits
• Global sector earnings momentum
• Global manufacturing activity
10. VIX Outside of `Red Zone' Indicates No Recession, Goldman Says
1. The “Red Zone” happens when the VIX is above 25 and climbing, which historically coincides with flat or negative U.S. gross domestic product.
11. A hedge fund manager shares the 10 things that could surprise the market this year (good)
12. A Recession Is On My Mind (Steven Hansen)
13. The Yield Curve Says No Recession
14. Labor Indicators: Some of Today's Trends Pre-Date the Great Recession (Fed Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
15. Why Is Economic Growth So Slow?
16. Portion of US Treasury Yield Curve Inverts
17. Altitude Adjustment: Investing During a Period of Lower Returns and Higher Volatility (PIMCO)
• We expect less consistency in the negative correlation between stocks and bonds relative to the past decade.
• We believe currency movements will play a much larger role in determining portfolio outcomes.
• We suggest investors not ignore the reduction in market liquidity and its potential consequences.
• Our outlook for the global economy is for sideways growth with an uptick in inflation.
• Are we nearing the threshold of the next global recession? At PIMCO, we don’t think so.
18. Currency Wars and a Job Gain Recession?
19. The yield curve still works and 5s10s is one measure that is less influenced by the Fed.
20. Worthy Of Investor Attention: The Long-Term Debt Cycle
21. 22 Signs That The Global Economic Turmoil We Have Seen So Far In 2016 Is Just The Beginning
22. Smelling the Recession
23. Voluntary Job-Quitting Hits Highest Level in Nine Years
24. 13 Charts On The Likelihood Of A Recession
25. Inflation And GDP Growth Rise; Bond Yields Must Follow
26. The 10 Largest “Relative” Trade Networks (EAST ASIA, EUROPE, INDIA, NORTH AMERICA )
27. Singapore's export slump is a worrying sign for the global economy
• As a global barometer for the health of the global economy, Singapore continues to paint a bleak picture at present.
28. Dual Risk Out Of China (04/24/2016)
29. Weak Eurozone Manufacturing Data Reinforces ECB's Impotence
30. These 9 charts explain the global slowdown and why central banks are powerless
31. An Arbiter of Recessions Sees ‘Clouds on the Horizon’ for the U.S. Economy
32. One of the biggest warning signs of the financial crisis is flashing again — but this time is different
• An increase in the Libor, the typical thinking goes, means that banks see lending to their fellow financial institutions as more risky and signals the possibility of financial instability.
33. Surge in Global Economic Surprises, Business Confidence Continues
34. Hard-Boiled vs Soft-Boiled Economic Egg Debate: Cracking the Shells
35. Closing In On ZERO Growth
36. Sotheby's As Economic Indicator
• While Sotheby's caters mostly to people who have too much money lying around that they feel the need to spend it on paintings and pricey tchotchkes, in the past the stock's performance has been cited as a relatively good predictor of the business cycle.
37. Taking Stock (Tim Duy)
38. Here's The Biggest Threat To The Economy And The Bull Market (good)
39. Are Recession Risks Increasing In The U.S.?
40. Why The Stock Market Will Peak On May 10, 2019 At 4:00 PM EST
41. Investment Basics: Yield Curve (Pimco)
42. Why Does the Yield Curve Typically Invert before Recessions?
• St. Louis Fed Director of Research Chris Waller discusses two reasons why: if people expect real interest rates to fall (which is usually viewed as a pessimistic outlook for the economy) and/or if they expect inflation to fall.
43. Prepare For A Deep Recession And Bear Market
44. Leading Indicators Suggest Recovery in 2020
45. The World's Top Experts On Money & The Markets
• Jim Grant, Lacy Hunt, Luke Gromen, James Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Brent Johnson, Lance Roberts, Tavi Costa, Rick Rule