Recession Watch—Inverted Yield Curve

A yield curve inverts when long-term interest rates drop below short-term rates, indicating that investors are moving money away from short-term bonds and into long-term ones. This suggests that the market as a whole is becoming more pessimistic about the economic prospects for the near future.

When looking at inverted yield curve, it can be any pair of long-term interest rates and short-term interest rates. In this article, we will look at the inverted yield curve between 30-year and 10-year treasury bond yields.

Inverted Yield Curve Precedes the Recession

The Fed's ongoing rate hiking will eventually trigger the next recession. Historically, an inverted yield curve - the difference between 10-year and 2-year bond yields - has been one of the single-best leading indicators of an impending downturn.

Figure 1. Inverted Yield Curve Precedes the Recession

The Slope of the Yield Curve

Conceptually, the slope of the yield curve is a rough approximation of the stance of U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve controls the level of short-term interest rates. Markets determine the level of long-term interest rates based on underlying macro fundamentals.

Therefore, the slope of the yield curve can tell us a lot about the market's expectations for economic growth and inflation. There are three basic shapes the yield curve can take:

• Normal, upward sloping yield curve
• Economy is growing and investors are confident
• Steep yield curve
• A sharply upward sloping, or steep yield curve, has often preceded an economic upturn
• Steep yield curve that is so beneficial to banks and levered bond investments.
• Flat yield curve
• Warning sign that an economy is under duress
• Inverted yield Curve
• The economic outlook is very bleak

Figure 2. Yield curve between 30Y and 10Y Treasury Yield (Courtesy: stockcharts.com)

Inverted Yield Curve between $UST30Y and $UST10Y

As Helene Meisler commented on 09/24/2022 (see Figure 2):

With the caveat that I am not a bond expert, I would note that for the last 3 days the yield on the 30 yr has been less than the yield on the 10 yr, something that hasn't happened since mid June (when it did so for 2 days).

And Guy LeBas replied:

10s30s inversion is very rare. If you model the spread historically, it’s a highly mean reverting process to about 45bps (see Figure 3).

Figure 3. Yield curve between 30Y and 10Y Treasury Yield (Courtesy: stockcharts.com)

Global Recession Outlook from Citi

Inverted yield curve normally precedes the recession—note that 2y10y inversion happened since July 2022. However, as said by Simon White at Variant Perception in [44]:

The lead time between an inversion and the onset of an actual recession is highly variable, White stated, anywhere from 4 to 6 months to 2 years before a recession takes hold.

In Figure 4, it shows Citi Bank's global recession outlook.

Figure 4. Global Recession Outlook from Citi

References

1. Cleveland Financial Stress Index
2. Fed "Workhorse" Model Says Odds of Recession in Next Year Only 3.56%; What are the Real Odds?
• The report failed to mention the most practical of practical issues: It's damn hard for the 3-month to invert with 10-year treasuries when the Fed has artificially held short-term yields closet to zero.
3. The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Some Practical Issues (New York Fed)
4. The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator (New York Fed)
5. Looking Beyond Circular Feedback Loops In The Market
6. On The Dispersion, Or Lack Thereof, of Economic Weakness (Tim Duy's Fed Watch)
7. So You Think A Recession Is Imminent, Yield Curve Edition (Tim Duy's Fed Watch)
8. So You Think A Recession Is Imminent, Employment Edition (Tim Duy's Fed Watch)
9. 3 Charts All Investors Should See
• US credits
• Global sector earnings momentum
• Global manufacturing activity
10. VIX Outside of `Red Zone' Indicates No Recession, Goldman Says
1. The “Red Zone” happens when the VIX is above 25 and climbing, which historically coincides with flat or negative U.S. gross domestic product.
11. A hedge fund manager shares the 10 things that could surprise the market this year (good)
12. A Recession Is On My Mind (Steven Hansen)
13. The Yield Curve Says No Recession
14. Labor Indicators: Some of Today's Trends Pre-Date the Great Recession (Fed Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
15. Why Is Economic Growth So Slow?
16. Portion of US Treasury Yield Curve Inverts
17. Altitude Adjustment: Investing During a Period of Lower Returns and Higher Volatility (PIMCO)
• We expect less consistency in the negative correlation between stocks and bonds relative to the past decade.
• We believe currency movements will play a much larger role in determining portfolio outcomes.
• We suggest investors not ignore the reduction in market liquidity and its potential consequences.
• Our outlook for the global economy is for sideways growth with an uptick in inflation.
• Are we nearing the threshold of the next global recession? At PIMCO, we don’t think so.
18. Currency Wars and a Job Gain Recession?
19. The yield curve still works and 5s10s is one measure that is less influenced by the Fed.
20. Worthy Of Investor Attention: The Long-Term Debt Cycle
21. 22 Signs That The Global Economic Turmoil We Have Seen So Far In 2016 Is Just The Beginning
22. Smelling the Recession
23. Voluntary Job-Quitting Hits Highest Level in Nine Years
24. 13 Charts On The Likelihood Of A Recession
25. Inflation And GDP Growth Rise; Bond Yields Must Follow
26. The 10 Largest “Relative” Trade Networks (EAST ASIA, EUROPE, INDIA, NORTH AMERICA )
27. Singapore's export slump is a worrying sign for the global economy
• As a global barometer for the health of the global economy, Singapore continues to paint a bleak picture at present.
28. Dual Risk Out Of China (04/24/2016)
29. Weak Eurozone Manufacturing Data Reinforces ECB's Impotence
30. These 9 charts explain the global slowdown and why central banks are powerless
31. An Arbiter of Recessions Sees ‘Clouds on the Horizon’ for the U.S. Economy
32. One of the biggest warning signs of the financial crisis is flashing again — but this time is different
• An increase in the Libor, the typical thinking goes, means that banks see lending to their fellow financial institutions as more risky and signals the possibility of financial instability.
33. Surge in Global Economic Surprises, Business Confidence Continues
34. Hard-Boiled vs Soft-Boiled Economic Egg Debate: Cracking the Shells
35. Closing In On ZERO Growth
36. Sotheby's As Economic Indicator
• While Sotheby's caters mostly to people who have too much money lying around that they feel the need to spend it on paintings and pricey tchotchkes, in the past the stock's performance has been cited as a relatively good predictor of the business cycle.
37. Taking Stock (Tim Duy)
38. Here's The Biggest Threat To The Economy And The Bull Market (good)
39. Are Recession Risks Increasing In The U.S.?
40. Why The Stock Market Will Peak On May 10, 2019 At 4:00 PM EST
41. Investment Basics: Yield Curve (Pimco)
42. Why Does the Yield Curve Typically Invert before Recessions?
• St. Louis Fed Director of Research Chris Waller discusses two reasons why: if people expect real interest rates to fall (which is usually viewed as a pessimistic outlook for the economy) and/or if they expect inflation to fall.
43. Prepare For A Deep Recession And Bear Market
44. Leading Indicators Suggest Recovery in 2020
45. The World's Top Experts On Money & The Markets
• Jim Grant, Lacy Hunt, Luke Gromen, James Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Brent Johnson, Lance Roberts, Tavi Costa, Rick Rule

Purchasing Power of US Dollars in Other Countries

One popular macroeconomic analysis metric to compare economic productivity and standards of living between countries is purchasing power parity (PPP). PPP is an economic theory that compares different countries' currencies through a "basket of goods" approach.

Purchasing Power Ranking Based on 2021 Data

Based on data of 

• Purchasing power parities (PPP), and 
• Exchange rates

from [1].  The below table ranks the purchasing power of using US dollars to purchase the same basket of goods in different countries.  For example, 

In Columbia, you can purchase 2.76 times of the same basket of goods as you do in USA.

Country	Purchasing Power of USD
Georgia	3.37
Zambia	3.23
India	3.19
Turkey	3.18
Madagascar	3.18
Indonesia	3.01
Colombia	2.76
Russia	2.69
North Macedonia	2.67
Cameroon	2.45
Albania	2.41
Romania	2.38
Senegal	2.35
Morocco	2.33
Bulgaria	2.30
Argentina	2.20
Brazil	2.14
Poland	2.10
Saudi Arabia	2.10
South Africa	2.06
Mexico	2.02
Hungary	1.96
Croatia	1.94
Costa Rica	1.87
Lithuania	1.82
Chile	1.76
Czech Republic	1.68
Latvia	1.67
Singapore	1.60
Slovak Republic	1.56
Estonia	1.54
Greece	1.54
China (People's Republic of)	1.54
Slovenia	1.49
Portugal	1.48
Malta	1.43
Cyprus	1.38
Spain	1.35
Korea	1.35
Hong Kong, China	1.33
Italy	1.29
European Union (27 countries, 2020)	1.27
Euro area (19 countries)	1.20
France	1.17
Germany	1.14
Belgium	1.14
Netherlands	1.10
Austria	1.10
Japan	1.09
Ireland	1.07
United Kingdom	1.05
Finland	1.02
Canada	1.00
United States	1.00
Luxembourg	0.99
Sweden	0.98
Denmark	0.95
New Zealand	0.95
Australia	0.92
Norway	0.89
Israel	0.85
Iceland	0.84
Switzerland	0.83

References

1. Purchasing power parities (OECD Data)

Technical Analysis―Elliott Wave Basics

Figure 1. Long-term Elliot Wave analysis posted in 2019 (courtesy: Elliott Wave Trader)

Elliott theorized that public sentiment and mass psychology move in 5 waves within a primary trend and 3 waves within a counter-trend:^[1] 

Once a 1-to-5 wave move in public sentiment has completed, then it is time for the subconscious sentiment of the public to shift in the opposite direction, which is simply the natural cycle within the human psyche, and not the operative effect of some form of "news."

 

Elliott Wave Analysis

In [1], Avi Gilburt describes Elliott Wave analysis succinctly in this way:

I have not found any other analysis methodology which provides an understanding of market context which exceeds that of Elliott Wave analysis. Moreover, Elliott Wave analysis does not provide any 100% guarantees. Rather, it provides us with probabilistic expectations based upon the market structure.

For its usefulness, Avi Gilburt further emphasize:

You see, the beauty of Elliott Wave analysis (as enhanced by our Fibonacci Pinball methodology) is not just the accuracy of identifying market turning points as well as precise targets. It is not just in its ability to outline where we are in the larger degree structures, and provide us with market context which is not available through any other methodology.

Finally, the goal of Elliott Wave analysis is to analyze sentiment, not participate in it!

Fibonacci Retracement Levels 

The Fibonacci ratios are derived from the Fibonacci sequence: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so on. Here, each number is equal to the sum of the two preceding numbers. Fibonacci ratios are informed by mathematical relationships found in this formula. As a result, they produce the following ratios 23.6%, 38.2%, 50% 61.8%, 78.6%, 100%, and 161.8%.  

The key takeaways of Fibonacci Retracement Levels can be summarized as:^[10]

• Fibonacci retracement levels connect any two points that the trader views as relevant, typically a high point and a low point.
• The percentage levels provided are areas where the price could stall or reverse.
• The most commonly used ratios include 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%.

These Fibonacci ratios and series have been controlling and limited the extent and duration of price trends, irrespective of wars, politics, production indices, the supply of money, general purchasing power, and other generally accepted methods of determining stock values.

Figure 2.  Labeling of self-similar fractal Elliott wave patterns (courtesy: [11])

Figure 3.  Elliott Wave—5 waves within a primary trend, and 3 waves within a corrective trend^[1]

Summary

If you watch video 1 (from 17:07 to 26:30), here are the gist of Elliott Wave analysis (as enhanced by Fibonacci Pinball methodology):

• There are 5 waves within a primary trend, and 3 waves within a corrective trend (see Figure 3)
• The 1st wave starts after a correction is completed
• 5 waves in an uptrend or downtrend looks exactly the same 
• 2nd and 4th waves take different shapes and sizes. Wave 2 pullback was fast and furious to the downside .  Wave 4 pullback will likely be meandering and take a long time.
• Rules of impulse waves^[12]
• Wave 2 may never move beyond the origin of wave 1 (i.e. retrace more than 100% of wave 1)
• Wave 4 may never enter the price territory of wave 1
• Wave 3 may never be the shortest wave
• Impulse waves always subdivide into 5 waves
• Waves 1, 3, and 5 are always 5 waves
• The percentage levels of Fibonacci ratios are areas where the price could stall (i.e., support level) or reverse (i.e., resistance level)
• But, Fibonacci retracement levels should not be relied on exclusively
• 3rd wave is the ideal wave to trade because it is the strongest and the most powerful of all waves
• Once we have waves i / ii in place, it makes trading the rest of waves iii / iv / v relatively easy to prognosticate in the impulse wave structure (referred to as Fibonacci Pinball by Avi)
• 3rd waves themselves have to be comprised of 5 sub-waves, which it helps us to determine how to trade this structure in relatively low risk manner
• Within wave iii (see Figure 3)
• Bottom → 1 normally reaches at 0.382 or 0.618 extension targets
• 1 → 2 normally pull back at 0.500 or 0.618 retracement levels
• 2 → 3 is the strongest move of all and usually reaches 1.000 or 1.236 extension targets 
• 3 → 4 is expected to pull back at 0.618 or 0.764 extension targets 
• If wave 3 reached 1.236 and the pullback broke below 0.764, this is an early indication that, about 70% of the time, the impulse wave up could ultimately fail.
• Ideal trading entry point is at label ii or label 2 within wave iii (see Figure 3)
• Ideal trading exit point is at label iii (e.g., 1.618 extension target)
• iii-iv wave pullback 
• After sub-wave 5 within wave iii reaches 1.382 or 1.618 extension targets, normally it would pullback to 1.000 level
• iv-v wave advance 
• Extension target would be either at 1.764 or 2.000 levels
• Self-similar fractal patterns
• In the direction of trend, waves i / iii / v are comprised of 5 sub-waves each and waves ii / iv are comprised  of 3 sub-waves each

Video 1.  How To Find The Major Turning Points In The Market (YouTube link)

References

1. How To Find The Major Turning Points In The Market with Avi Gilburt
2. Sentiment Speaks: How I Know If I Am Wrong About The Equity Market
3. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4198736-analysis-will-change-way-invest-forever-part-1
4. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4200678-analysis-will-change-way-invest-forever-part-2
5. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4202240-analysis-will-change-way-invest-forever-part-3
6. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4203856-analysis-will-change-way-invest-forever-part-4
7. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4210288-analysis-will-change-way-invest-forever-part-5
8. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4230400-analysis-will-change-way-invest-forever-part-6
9. This is Water
10. Fibonacci Retracement Levels Definition
11. Determining Wave Degree
12. Rules and Guidelines Applicable to All Motive and Corrective Waves

Gold Investment during Recession

Economics is not very good at explaining swings in economic activity.  We don't know what causes recessions.  We've never known. 

 —Eugene Fama

In this article, we will not speculate on whether a recession is coming or will it be a mild recession or not.  But, we will focus on gold market development during a period of recession.

Mild Recession vs Deep Recession

A technical recession normally started when GDP contracted for two consequent quarters.  However, recessions are officially declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a group of economists whose Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”

In this article, mild recession vs deep recession are differentiated roughly by how long the pain last:

• Mild Recession
• Is a short and shallow recession like in 1990-91 or in 2001
• Would be a relatively negative scenario for the yellow metal
• Deep Recession
• Is a long and severe recession like the Great Recession or a short but deep one like the pandemic recession of 2020
• Note that pandemic recession of 2020 was caused by the Great Lockdown
• There was a long recession in 1973-1975 and later a double-dip recession in the early 1980s.
• Would be much better for gold

Mild Recession and Gold Investment

A mild recession would be a relatively negative scenario for the yellow metal. Here is why:^[1] 

It could still gain somewhat, but markets are forward-looking and when a recession is shallow, they would anticipate a quick recovery (which would rather support equities and other risky assets). 

The mild recession would also allow the Fed to stay relatively calm and to not fire all the monetary ammunition – while gold would prefer the U.S. central bank to go fully dovish.

Deep Recession and Gold Investment

A deep recession would be much better for gold. Here is why:^[1]

During severe economic downturns, moods are really pessimistic, and risk aversion is high. Hence, investors shift into safe-haven assets such as gold. 

What’s more, the Fed would then break out all available weapons to avoid a full economic catastrophe, even in the face of high inflation. This would create excellent conditions for gold to rally.

If a deep recession is accompanied by a financial crisis or sovereign-debt crisis, when confidence in a financial system and fiat money is ultra low, it would be a really perfect scenario for the yellow metal.

Potential Risk for a Deep Recession is High

The author of [1] bets on a deep recession in the current environment (09/10/2022).  Here is why:^[1] 

A lot will depend on the path of inflation. If inflation remains stubbornly high, the Fed could continue its hiking cycle, which could trigger a potentially severe recession.

In addition, there is so much debt that hikes in interest rates and withdrawal of liquidity in the form of quantitative tightening could trigger a financial crash or an economic crisis.

Warning

You could read other companion articles at this blogger:

• Gold Investments During Rate Hike Periods
• Gold Investment— All Things Considered

However, always consult your financial adviser before making any changes to your investment plan. It's also wise to consult with your financial adviser before adopting any of the recommendations made at this blogger.

The darker the color the riskier the financial asset.
The darker the border the less liquid the instrument

References

1. Gold Wonders How Severe This Recession Will Be
2. An Asian Bretton Woods?
3. 3 Drivers Of Gold
4. Gold Is The Geopolitical Hedge Of First Resort, Goldman Sees $2150 Within 12 Months (posted on 02/14/2022)
5. Stocks, Bonds, & Bitcoin Dump'n'Pump As 'Meh'-Minutes Reverse Russia-Rout
6. Gold Investment— All Things Considered
7. How Debt Jubilees Work 
• Suffice to say, my main plan (i.e., Lyn Alden Schwartzer) throughout this period is to mainly hold scarce assets- things like productive cash-producing companies, commodities, real estate, and hard monies, rather than being too heavily invested in fiat currency or bonds at any given time other than for some liquidity and optionality. 
8. Flows show recession risks are rising - BofA (02/21/2022)

Economy—Relations of Stimulus Check, Personal Saving Rate, and Jewelry Sales

In 2020, over $6 trillion of stimulus money was created from thin air by the Federal Reserve and injected directly into the US economy by Donald Trump (and continued by Joe Biden) through COVID relief checks, PPP loans and bailouts for numerous corporations. Again, in 2021, Biden instituted the 'American Rescue Plan Act' which added $1.9 trillion to the pile. That's at least $8 trillion in helicopter money dropped on top of the US economy.^[4]

In this article, we will focus only on the Economic Impact Payments paid to the lower- and mid-income earners.

Figure 1.  Personal Saving Rate tagged with COVID-19 Stimulus Checks for Individuals^[2]

Stimulus Checks vs Personal Saving Rate

The IRS issued three Economic Impact Payments during the coronavirus pandemic for people who were eligible:^[1]

• 1st Stimulus Checks
• $1,200 in April 2020
• 2nd Stimulus Checks
• $600 in December 2020/January 2021
• 3rd Stimulus Checks
• $1,400 in March 2021

Figure 2. Price of Signet Jewelers (SIG) helped by stimulus checks and hurt by higher inflation (or Producer Price Index—proxy of inflation) 

Jewelry Sales (under $500) vs Stimulus Checks

The market for jewelry priced under $500 is cooling off quickly, signaling that lower- and mid-income earners are starting to feel the crunch of the inflationary recession we are in the early innings of.

The revelation came to light last week after Signet, who owns Kay Jewelers and Zales, reported a "steep decline" in demand for such items during their earnings report. As Bloomberg noted last week, higher rent prices and gas prices have put the lower and middle class in a crunch, with far less to spend on discretionary items like jewelry. 

Gina Drosos, chief executive officer of Signet Jewelers, said that spending was robust last year due to stimulus checks and pent-up pandemic savings. Now, the lower class is “much more economically challenged and not spending as much,” she commented. 

Tying Together

From Figure 1&2, here are what we can probably conclude:

• Pent-up pandemic savings were clearly helped by stimulus checks, which in turn helped the spending of lower- and mid-income earners
• Good jewelry sales priced under $500 were also linked to pent-up demands of lower- and mid-income earners

As America and the world reopen from this devastating pandemic together with governments' pre-pandemic easy monetary policies and post-pandemic fiscal policies, it may have also led to higher inflation (i.e. higher PPI; see Figure 2).

References

1. Advance Child Tax Credit and Economic Impact Payments
2. Personal Saving Rate (St. Louis Fed)
3. Signet Sees "Steep Decline" In Sales Of Jewelry Priced Under $500
4. The US Economy Is Still Being Artificially Supported By Trillions In COVID Stimulus

Investment—Market Bottoming Process

In this article, we will cover what a market bottoming process looks like and various measures (i.e., rule of 20, breadth thrust, etc.) to look for.

Also read the below companion article:

• Investment—Finding A Market Bottom

Market Bottoming Process

According to Ned Davis Research (NDR), the stock market needs these 4 things to happen before it can find a bottom and starting moving higher again:^[1]

1. Oversold
• The first step is for the market to fall to deeply oversold levels. By several objective measures, the market can be described as oversold.
2. Rally
• At some point, the sellers become exhausted, and the market posts a multi-week rally.
• Importantly, look for broad participation on rallies, including an expanding percentage of stocks above their short-term moving averages and upside volume.
• Note that the average bear market rally after a waterfall decline like the market is currently experiencing lasts a median of 25 days with gains of 14% (as of 05/24/2022).
3. Retest
• Most post-waterfall declines experience retests while noting that prior waterfall declines in 2018 and 2020 did not. For that reason, we would still look for a retest, but leave open the possibility of the market skipping step three.
• The key is looking for positive divergences, such as fewer sectors and stocks making new lows, as well as less total volume and less downside volume.
4. Breadth Thrusts
• The early stages of a sustained uptrend often include most stocks rallying together. 
• That way, if a few industries falter, plenty of others can support the popular averages. 
• An extremely high percentage of stocks rallying is called a breadth thrust.

Rule of 20 vs S&P 500 (Credit: Real Investment Advice)

Market Multiples / Valuation Multiples

Valuation multiples are financial measurement tools that evaluate one financial metric as a ratio of another, in order to make different companies or cycles more comparable.  The below are some samples of valuation multiples:

1. Rule of 20
• The value of the markets is fair when the sum of the P/E ratio and the inflation rate equals 20.
• P/E + Inflation = 20
• The stock market is undervalued when the sum is below 20 and overvalued when the sum is above 20.
• The combined P/E ratio and inflation rate have ranged from a low of 14 to a high of 34.
2. Profit Margins
• "Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance. And if profit margins do not mean-revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism", said Jeremy Grantham.
• The only question is when the markets begin to realize it.
3. Inflation-Adjusted $SPX
• $SPX can go up but inflation could go up faster (read [9] for more details)

Bottom Line

The bottom line is that the market has achieved the first step (oversold) and is attempting the second step (rally). Until the market can move to step four (breadth thrusts), NDR views the [bottoming] process as ongoing.  Some bottom signals could include:

• A record inflow of funds from a certain asset could signal that the end of bear market
• Buy when retail sells and sell when retail buys

Finally, be warned that each cycle is different.  As Howard Marks at Oaktree Capital Management has commented on the current cycle:^[2]

“There’s a global glut of liquidity, minimal interest in traditional investments, little apparent concern about risk, and skimpy prospective returns everywhere. Thus, investors are readily accepting significant risk in the form of heightened leverage, untested derivatives and weak deal structures. The current cycle isn’t unusual in its form, only its extent.”

Figure 1.  S&P 500 % of stocks > 50d MA (Courtesy: stockcharts.com; Also Read: [7])

Video 1.  How To Find The Major Turning Points In The Market with Avi Gilburt (YouTube link)

References

1. The stock market needs these 4 things to happen before it can find a bottom and starting moving higher again, Ned Davis Research says
2. The Rule Of 20 And Why The Bear Market Remains
3. 11 macroeconomic indicators measuring inflation, fear and uncertainty
4. 11 data sources that have HIGH QUALITY and FREE data you can access
5. How to make a 10-bagger (a stock that goes up tenfold)?
6. How to read an income statement?
7. Does Quick Drop To 20-Day Low Invalidate Recent Breadth Thrust?
• Breadth thrust looks at times the % of SPX stock above their 50ma quickly rose from <= 15% to >= 90% within 50 days
8. Investment—Finding A Market Bottom
9. Technical Analysis—SPX / PPI Price Relative
10. Investment—Market Topping Process
11. Reflections on recession, inflation and earnings