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In this article, we will illustrate both lumber and copper prices using the same technical indicators as described in a previous article: Technical Analysis—Indicators that Identifies Overbought and Oversold levels From the below charts, it seems to support Bloomberg's comment on 11/30/2019: When it comes to financial markets, it looks like America is besting China . The U.S. economy however was off to modest start in the fourth quarter as consumers limited spending . More broadly, central bankers are worried what their cheap money policies may wreak . Lumber Price Copper Price References Technical Analysis—Indicators that Identifies Overbought and Oversold levels

In [1], Victor Dergunov  has used the below indicators to identity $SPX overbought levels: Commodity Channel Index (CCI) Relative Strength Index (RSI) Full Stochastic Oscillator In this article, we will use the same indicators to look at EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea Capped ETF NYSE). Figure 1.  EWY chart on 11/08/2019 Relative Strength Index (RSI) Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. RSI oscillates between zero and 100. According to Wilder, RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30 . Signals can also be generated by looking for divergences, failure swings and centerline crossovers. RSI can also be used to identify the general trend. EWY (11/08/2019) On 11/05/2019, the RSI was over 70 and now is back to 66.40. Commodity Channel Index (CCI) Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is a versatile indicator that can be used to identify a new trend or warn o...

Figure 1.  Energy spikes preceded almost every recession Below indicators will not try to time when the recession will come.  But, just add them to your prediction tool chest for monitoring purpose: CEO departures Bank layoffs [3,8,9] Heavy truck sales in the US are down   This is one of the metrics Lyn Alden Schwartzer watch, because it tends to be a leading recession indicator. [2] Inverted yield curve [2,4] IPO trouble [2,4] Some of these failed IPOs are another log on the recession risk bonfire, because now bondholders are at risk, employees are at risk, investors are starting to tone down their enthusiasm, etc. [2] High oil prices Energy spikes preceded almost every recession for the last 80 years. [10] Figure 1.  CEO departures tend be higher before the recession References An Interesting Recession Indicator The Music Is Winding Down, But Opportunities Exist HSBC to cut up to 10,000 jobs in drive to slash costs: FT Inverted Yield Curve ...

Figure 1.  Top 10 holdings of Renaissance IPO Index (source: Charles Schwab) The Renaissance IPO Index is a portfolio of companies that have recently completed an initial public offering ("IPO") and are listed on a U.S. exchange. Figure 2.  Recent IPOs are breaking down relative to the S&P 500 In [2], Bloomberg reported on 09/25/2019 that: The 2019 class of IPOs includes a number of so-called unicorns, including high-profile market entrants like Uber Technologies Inc., Lyft Inc., and Pinterest Inc. Together, the unprofitable IPOs have already raised the most cash of any year since at least 2000 , according to a Bloomberg analysis of listings worth $100 million or more. In [4] , Financial Times reported on 11/22/2019 that: But Bank of America investment strategist Jared Woodard offers a note of caution.  “ Just 14 per cent of US tech IPOs are profitable this year, the last time that happened was at the dotcom peak in 2000 and we all kn...

Video 1.  The Fourth Turning: Why American 'Crisis' May Last Until 2030 (YouTube link ) Video 2.  The Fourth Turning with Neil Howe on The Macro Show (YouTube link ) Video 3.  Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning Has Arrived (YouTube link ) According to the authors— Strauss and Howe , the Fourth Turning (roughly from 2008 to 2030) is a Crisis. This is an era of destruction, often involving war or revolution, in which institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival. 09/20/2021 SPX Monthly (source: @InvestingAngles) As Robert Prechter . noted in a study he published in 2012 on  Socionomic theory , proposes that unconscious social mood regulates social actions (including our willingness to buy stocks ). Interestingly, it seems to match approximately the prediction of the  Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) which foresees that, after stock market reaches a peak in the year around 2022, it then will ...

"In The Arena" with Darius Dale & Daryl Jones (YouTube link ) Hedgeye 's GIP model (i.e.  G rowth, I nflation, P olicy Model) is a regime-based sort of framework. Both Dallio's Reserch and Hedgeye findings have proven that the two most important factors for investors to track the future financial market returns is the the rates of change in: Growh  Inflation . as policymakers typically respond to subsequent levels on a lag. From the rate changes, you get four possible outcomes, each of which is assigned a “quadrant” in their Growth, Inflation, Policy (GIP) model and the typical government response as a result (neutral, hawkish, in-a-box or dovish): QUAD 1 Growth accelerating, Inflation slowing  Monetary policy bias: Neutral Market Narrative: Goldilocks Normally, you see Really positive for both equity and credit data across all sectors of the U.S. economy The best quadrant for equity return QUAD 2 Growth accelerating, Inflat...

REITs are influenced by real estate-specific factors like property demand, rental income, and interest rates, which differ from broader equity or bond market dynamics. This article's discussion of low interest rates reflects the pre-2019 environment, where REITs benefited from a low-rate regime. However, by 2025, rising interest rates have pressured REIT valuations, making this point less applicable today. ( Updated on May 20, 2025 ) In [10], Charles Schwab provides the case for REITs.  Here are the four reasons why REITs might deserve a place in your portfolio: Diversification REITs rarely perform in lockstep with stocks or bonds due to the below reasons: In recent years, the divergence was partly the result of low interest rates, which caused yield-hungry investors to drive REIT prices higher. REITs tend to follow the real estate cycle, which typically lasts a decade or more, whereas bond- and stock-market cycles typically last an average of roughly 5.75 years. Income ...

Relative Performance of Equities to Commodities The above chart shows cyclical moves in commodities relative to investing in the S&P 500 , which can lead to potential investment opportunities in commodities. The periods 1970-1974, 1987-1990 and 1998-2008 show outperformance of commodities relative to the S&P 500 on the order of 800% occur with cyclical regularity. Today’s geopolitical and economic conditions are deteriorating exacerbated by the US-China trade war and Hong Kong protests which are accelerating the reallocation to commodity. Participating in this asset class transition could lead to dramatic investment performance outcomes that could impact investors and their lifestyles like those previous periods 1970-1974, 1987-1990 and 1998-2008 which encompassed four historic equity bear markets and commodity rallies. Figure 2.  Soybean growing/export seasons (Brazil vs US) Price Dynamics of Commodities Each commodity has different price dynamics and co...

See Also: INVESTMENT IDEAS2022 (GS)

Below is the ranking of " Quality of Life Index " from " Mapping the World's Prices 2019 " research paper published by Deutsche Bank.  The ranking is based on the following factors: Purchasing Power Index  Safety Index  Health Care Index  Cost of Living Index  Property Price to Income Ratio  Traffic Commute Time Index  Pollution Index Climate Index  Want to live abroad but aren't ready to sacrifice your quality of life? These countries offer a higher standard of living at a discount based an article on Forbes— Top 8 Cheapest Places To Live Well Overseas In 2019 : Lisbon, portugal Abruzzo, Italy Cali, Colombia Santo Domingo, Dominican Placencia, Belize Durango City, Mexico Da Nang, Vietnam Chiang Mai, Thailand

My wild Irish Rose,  the sweetest flower that grows. You may search everywhere,  but none can compare with my wild Irish Rose. My wild Irish Rose,  the dearest flower that grows, And some day for my sake,  she may let me take the bloom from my wild Irish Rose. My wild Irish Rose,  the sweetest flower that grows. You may search everywhere,  but none can compare with my wild Irish Rose. My wild Irish Rose,  the dearest flower that grows, And some day for my sake,  she may let me take the bloom from my wild Irish Rose. Yes some day for my sake,  she may let me take the bloom from my wild Irish Rose. Songwriters: Mervyn Allan / Pd Traditional My Wild Irish Rose lyrics © Warner/Chappell Music, Inc

Video 1.   Demis Roussos - "Come, Waltz with Me" (YouTube link ) Come walk with me and  let go of the way you are going Come talk to me and  I'll tell you what's really worth knowing Life's much too good,  my friend. Don't let it end. Come dance with me and  I'll give you a gift worth giving Take a chance with me and  I'll show you a life that's worth living Life's much too good,  my friend. Don't let it end. Come waltz with me and  let go of the way you are going Come talk to me and  I'll tell you what's really worth knowing Life's much too good,  my friend. Don't let it end. Come dance with me and  I'll give you a gift worth giving Take a chance with me and  I'll show you a life that's worth living Life's much too good,  my friend. Don't let it end. Songwriters:  Dmitri Dmitrijewitsch Schostakowitsch John O C W Ewbank Bert Gijsbertus C...

The VIX-index is a measure of implied volatility in the S&P 500 and is often referred to as a fear index.  CDX.NA.IG is a credit default swap-index consisting of 125 North American investment grade companies and the S&P 500 is a stock index consisting of the 500 largest companies in USA. In [1], authors use ordinary least square (OLS) regression to study if VIX can be explained by CDS and S&P 500. and find that the VIX ,  CDX.NA.IG  (will be referred as CDX in this article for short) and  S&P 500  have a high correlation. Figure 1.   A mean-reverting pattern of inverse relationship of VIX and S&P 500 played out cleanly in 2022. VIX VIX  is measured as the weighted 30-day implied standard derivation of annual changes in S&P 500.  For example if the value of VIX is 20, then S&P 500 is expected to increase or decrease by 20% over the next year. [2]   This will be true in 68% of the cases, because stand...