Chris Vermeulen’s May 9, 2025: Markets, Gold Super Cycle & Real Estate Collapse

New Gold Forecast & More! (YouTube link)

In a May 9, 2025, video, Chris Vermeulen provides a market update, expressing a bearish outlook while emphasizing trading based on price action. 

Key points:

• Market Overview: Equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) are slightly up, with potential for a short squeeze if resistance levels (March highs) are broken. Recent FOMO and late-day selling suggest institutions are distributing shares. Chris sees a "dead cat bounce" and anticipates a major financial reset, akin to 2000 or 2008, due to strong bearish data.
• Covered Call ETFs: Criticized as ineffective hedges, underperforming the Nasdaq (e.g., Nasdaq up 159% since 2018, while a covered call ETF fell 35%). They offer 11-14% dividends but don’t protect against market drops, making cash or inverse ETFs better options.
• Real Estate: Predicts a sharp 10%+ drop in housing prices this spring/summer, citing stalled sales (e.g., in Florida and California) and a topping pattern in single-family home prices ($400,000-$455,000 range).
• 2008 Comparison: Compares current markets to 2008, where gold surged before a 34% drop as stocks crashed 57%. The US dollar, currently undervalued, rallied in 2008’s chaos, likely to repeat. Bonds (TLT) hold value but spike only when rates are cut near market bottoms. Inverse ETFs rise with falling markets, offering tradable opportunities.
• Gold Outlook: 
• Super Cycle (Long-Term): Bullish, with gold in a new cycle since 2019, targeting $5,100 after a potential pullback to $2,600, mirroring 2008-2011.  
• Short-Term: Chris expects a near-term decline due to stock market selling pressure and a rising dollar.  After that, gold flags for a potential rise to $3,750-$3,775.
• Other Assets: Oil is overbought after a double bottom, Bitcoin and uranium hit targets (half positions sold), and the dollar is down slightly but poised for gains in chaos.

Chris remains cautiously bearish, preparing for a financial reset but trading price action, not sentiment, and sees gold as a long-term opportunity despite near-term concerns.