Posts

Showing posts from May, 2022

Investment―Stagflation 2.0

Image
Table 1. Stagflation 1.0 (1970-1983) vs 2.0 Stagflation , or recession-inflation, is an economic phenomenon marked by persistent high inflation, high unemployment, and stagnant demand in a country's economy. [1] During a particularly severe period of economic conditions in the 1970s , rising inflation and slumping employment put a damper on economic growth in the United Kingdom and seven other major market economies, and investors in equity markets suffered greatly as a result. Historically, the last pronounced stagflation phases occurred between 1970 and 1983. These were made possible by a liquidity overhang, which had its origins in an excessively loose monetary policy, and were triggered by oil shocks caused by geopolitical tensions. [2] Stagflation 2.0 In its " In Gold We Trust " report, incrementum  (i.e., a fund and asset management firm) believes we're in another period of stagflation and minted the term "stagflation 2.0".   We will certainly not hav...

Investment—Accounting Gimmicks Used by Execs to Cook their Books

In 2016 volatile stock market, Bert Dohmen has warned the casual investors that: [1] At the start of a bear market a casual investor, who is easily swayed by the opinions of others, should not listen to the opinion of any analyst with a conflict of interest. They are either with Wall Street or have investment management jobs. Both have big conflicts. None of those people can ever be candid about their opinions of the markets   If you want analysis and forecasts without conflicts of interest, find someone with lots of experience who doesn’t work for Wall Street, who doesn’t manage money or sell investments. You never want to guess if what you hear or read is tainted. Accounting Gimmicks Stocks move on earnings, so execs will manipulate earnings. How can you spot their accounting gimmicks ahead of time?  In her twitter thread,  @FabiusMercurius has shared her thoughts. Here’s a rundown of top shenanigans execs used to cook their books: 1. Using SPVs to hide bad debts cas...

Investment—Trading Jargon 101

Image
The below information was shared by @FabiusMercurius on her twitter thread: Trading Jargon 101 1. Market maker vs Market taker  Markets are made up of makers & takers. Makers: "producers" of buy/sell orders (they create quotes based on the max price at which they'd buy & min at which they'd sell) Takers: "consumers" (they buy or sell instantly at the maker's price quote) 2. Passive vs Aggressive Order (Limit vs Market Order)  Passive/limit order: a trader sets a new price, different from the going rate (e.g. buy $TSLA at $800, while current price is $616) Aggressive/market order: a taker executes a buy/sell immediately @ whatever the going rate 3. Liquidity People often describe market makers as " liquidity providers ." Liquidity is the degree to which one can quickly buy/sell a security. In markets with lots of quotes flying around, orders get matched & filled fast (high liquidity). Makers add liquidity ; takers remove . 4. Bid-...