Some Layman's Leading Recession Indicators
Figure 1. Energy spikes preceded almost every recession Below indicators will not try to time when the recession will come. But, just add them to your prediction tool chest for monitoring purpose: CEO departures Bank layoffs [3,8,9] Heavy truck sales in the US are down This is one of the metrics Lyn Alden Schwartzer watch, because it tends to be a leading recession indicator. [2] Inverted yield curve [2,4] IPO trouble [2,4] Some of these failed IPOs are another log on the recession risk bonfire, because now bondholders are at risk, employees are at risk, investors are starting to tone down their enthusiasm, etc. [2] High oil prices Energy spikes preceded almost every recession for the last 80 years. [10] Figure 1. CEO departures tend be higher before the recession References An Interesting Recession Indicator The Music Is Winding Down, But Opportunities Exist HSBC to cut up to 10,000 jobs in drive to slash costs: FT Inverted Yield Curve ...