Thursday, September 7, 2017

When Irish Eyes Are Smiling



Lyrics


There's a tear in your eye
And I'm wondering why
For it never should be there at all
With such pow'r in your smile
Sure a stone you'd beguile
So there's never a teardrop should fall


When your sweet lilting laughter's
Like some fairy song
And your eyes twinkle bright as can be
You should laugh all the while
And all other times smile
And now, smile a smile for me


When Irish eyes are smiling
Sure, 'tis like the morn in Spring
In the lilt of Irish laughter
You can hear the angels sing
When Irish hearts are happy
All the world seems bright and gay
And when Irish eyes are smiling
Sure, they steal your heart away


For your smile is a part
Of the love in your heart
And it makes even sunshine more bright
Like the linnet's sweet song
Crooning all the day long
Comes your laughter and light


For the springtime of life
Is the sweetest of all
There is ne'er a real care or regret
And while springtime is ours
Throughout all of youth's hours
Let us smile each chance we get


When Irish eyes are smiling
Sure, 'tis like the morn in Spring
In the lilt of Irish laughter
You can hear the angels sing
When Irish hearts are happy
All the world seems bright and gay
And when Irish eyes are smiling
Sure, they steal your heart away

Sunday, August 20, 2017

Currency Carry Trade—Learning the Basics





Both retail and institutional investors want to acquire an asset in anticipation of its price appreciation. However, the institutional investors is more complicated:
It is not only about the asset that is to be purchased, but it is also about how the purchase is funded. A low returning asset is a drag, but if the funding costs can be reduced, a low returning asset may still be attractive.
In the capital markets, securing cheap funding is accomplished by selling a low yielding (and ideally a low volatility) instrument and using the proceeds to purchase a higher yielding or a better performing asset.

Funding Currencies


US Dollars 

In the foreign exchange market, the dollar is the ultimate funding currency. Americans are the marginal buyer of global equities. They sell dollars and buy foreign equities, and largely on an unhedged basis. Foreign companies and countries borrow dollars and frequently convert the proceeds back to their own currency.

Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc

Besides US Dollars, levered accounts also often use the Japanese yen and/or Swiss franc as funding currencies. That is to say, those currencies are borrowed and then sold to buy another asset that is expected generate a higher yield than being paid for the funding.

Carry Trade Considerations


Interest Rate Differential

When a low yielding instrument is sold for an asset that is expected to offer a higher return, it is often called a carry trade. A carry trade is a trade in which one is expected to profit from the interest rate differential:
Currency carry trades materialize when the funding currency is weakening because it is expected that it will be cheaper in the future to pay back the currency borrowed now to fund other investments.
When the interest rate is higher in one currency than in another, it usually reflects a higher inflation rate in the former, which would lead to its depreciation against the latter. The interest rate difference reflects the inflation difference and the former's depreciation.  Because currency depreciation happens infrequently, many investors or speculators cannot resist the temptation of arbitraging interest rate.

Currency Volatility

Besides interest rate differential consideration, volatility is another factor to consider for carry trade:
  • The funding currency needs to have low volatility to make a carry trade practical.
    • In times of heightened anxiety or a spike in volatility, the carry trade is unwound, which is to say that the purchased asset is liquidated and the funding is replaced (bought back).

Case Study


In [2], currency expert Marc Chandler has used the following case study:
Is The Yen Or Swiss Franc A Better Funding Currency?
to make clear the considerations of a potential carry trade on 08/16/2017.
Consider that currently, one can borrow yen for about -3 bps annualized for three months. That yen can then be sold, and dollars bought and put in a three-month time deposit and earn about 130 bps annualized for the three months. One earns 133 bps over the three months adjusted for the change in the value of the yen over that period. Over the past three months, the yen has gained 2% (not annualized), which is some multiple of the carry earned.
Moreover, look a bit closer at that carry, 125 bps annualized. That turns out to be about 10.5 bps a month. This year, the dollar has moved on averaging almost 1.3% a month so far this year. On the other hand, the euro rose around 14.5% against from mid-April to early August. The carry earned is overwhelmed by the price appreciation. Some participants may have bought the euro for yen and said it was about the carry, but it was really a momentum trade.
To reiterate, the use of the Swiss franc and Japanese yen as a funding currency is not limited to the currency market, where the volatility, as we have shown, is frequently too great to make a carry strategy practical. The issue is then which currency is a better funding currency now, the yen or the Swiss franc?
The Swiss franc offers more negative short-term interest rates and is less volatile than the yen. Specifically, three-month franc LIBOR was fixed at minus 72.5 bps today. Three-month yen LIBOR was fixed at about minus three bps today. Three-month implied volatility is 7.5% annualized for the Swiss franc and 8.7% for the yen. Both countries are experiencing little price pressures. Japan's July headline CPI was 0.4% year over year, while Swiss inflation was 0.3% (0.6% in the EU harmonized methodology). The Swiss economy growth is weaker but less volatile than Japan. Japan's economy grew 1.0% in Q2 after 0.4% growth in Q1. The Swiss economy grew by 0.3% in Q1. When it reports Q2 GDP in early September, it is expected to have risen by around 0.5%.
On balance, these fundamental considerations suggest that the Swiss franc may be a better funding currency now than the yen. Technical considerations suggest some caution. The franc has depreciated by around 5% against the yen between July 10 and this past Monday. This left the technical indicators a bit stretched. Yesterday's big advance of the franc over the yen helped lift the RSI, and the Slow Stochastic has already turned up. Minor bullish divergences are evident. The MACD looks poised to cross higher before the weekend.
The cross fell into the lower end of the range seen in the second half of Q2 (~JPY112.50). A move above JPY114.30, last week’s high, is needed to confirm a franc low is in place. The JPY114.65-JPY114.75 area houses the 38.2% retracement objective of the last leg down that began on July 25 near JPY118 and the 20-day moving average. The franc has not closed above its 20-day moving average against the yen since July 21.

References

  1. Should You Prepare for the Yen Carry Trade Rewind?
  2. Is The Yen Or Swiss Franc A Better Funding Currency?
  3. The Demise of the Dollar: Don't Hold Your Breath
    • There are three basic uses for currency
      • International payments
      • Foreign reserves
      • Debt

Friday, August 11, 2017

Save Our Dying Planet



Before the Flood 


The Temperature-CO₂ Connection



Why Mega-fires are Rising


An Inconvenient Truth (1/10)

Sunday, July 9, 2017

Dalai Lama's Prayers and Wishes on His 82nd Birthday

I would like to thank everyone who sent kind greetings on the occasion of my 82nd birthday and who joined in celebrating the day in many parts of the world.




As you are probably already aware, my life is guided by three principal commitments — 

  1. To contribute to bringing about a more compassionate world
  2. To encourage inter-religious harmony, and 
  3. To work to preserve Tibet’s Buddhist culture, which is a culture of peace and non-violence, 
while also drawing attention to the need to protect the natural environment of Tibet. Since the Tibetan Plateau is the source of Asia’s major rivers, more than one billion people depend on the water they provide.

Tibet’s Buddhist culture is derived from the traditions of India’s historic Nalanda University, which encouraged dependence on reason and logic over reliance on mere scriptural authority. It adopted an empirical approach, like science, which included a thorough knowledge of the workings of the mind and emotions that remains extremely relevant today.

These are commitments by which I abide myself, but I often ask brothers and sisters who show me affection and respect to consider joining me in upholding them.

In short, may I request you please to help others whenever you can and if for some reason you can’t do that, at least to refrain from doing anyone any harm.

With my prayers and good wishes,


The Dalai Lama

Leh, Ladakh, 9 July 2017

Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Funny Pictures

Many US animal shelters offer free dog and cat adoptions. Check out map here: 

http://www.cleartheshelters.com


What are we doing?
Waiting for our master and 
it's Kiddie's turn to do the lookout.






What's up?

Stop waiting and live your life now!

Einstein: "Reflecting my political views"

Horses: "Reflecting our views of human"


Amen!


Say, Ah... Please

The Cutest Backseat Driver

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Wisdom of Ratan Tata

Ratan Tata was the chairman of Tata Group, a Mumbai-based global business conglomerate from 1991 till 2012 and again from 2 October 2016 for interim term, and continues to head its charitable trusts.  He is the recipient of two of the highest civilian awards of India–Padma Vibhushan (2008) and Padma Bhushan (2000).





Don't educate your children to be rich. "Educate them to be Happy" .
So when they grow up they will know the value of things not the price

"Eat your food as your medicines. Otherwise
you have to eat medicines as your food"

The One who loves you will never leave you because
even if there are 100 reason to give up they will find one reason to hold on

There is a lot of difference between "human being"and "being human".
A Few who understand it.

You are loved when you are born. You will be loved when you die. In between You have to manage...!


If you want to Walk Fast, Walk Alone..!
But if you want to Walk Far, Walk Together!


Six Best Doctors in the World:
1. Sunlight
2. Rest
3. Exercise
4. Diet
5. Self Confidence
6. Friends
Maintain them in all stages of Life and enjoy healthy life



If you see the moon .....
You see the beauty of God ..... 
If you see the Sun .....
You see the power of God ..... And .. 
If you see the Mirror ....
You see the best Creation of GOD .... 
So Believe in YOURSELF.... 🙂.


We all are tourists and God is our travel agent who
already fixed all our Routes Reservations and Destinations.
So! Trust him & Enjoy the "Trip" called LIFE...