Travel to Financial Success

David Rosenberg: Will Tariff Trauma Trigger A Recession? (YouTube link) Below is a summary of David Rosenberg's interview on Thoughtful Money in the video above. Economic Outlook and Recession Risk: Economist David Rosenberg predicts a potential economic recession, which he believes was delayed from 2022-2023, driven by uncertainties from President Trump's trade and tariff policies. He argues that financial markets are only 25% priced for a recession, indicating significant downside risk. The heightened uncertainty, particularly from erratic tariff announcements and reversals, is causing businesses to freeze capital expenditures (capex) and households to increase precautionary savings, reducing discretionary spending. This could shave 1-2% off GDP growth, leading to economic stagnation or a mild recession. Trump’s Economic Policies and Tariffs: Rosenberg expresses disappointment with Trump’s economic strategy, which prioritizes tariffs over pro-growth policies like deregulation...

The Fed Quietly Admits Mass Layoffs Have Begun, And The Economy Is Falling Apart (YouTube link ) Jeffrey P. Snider , host of the Eurodollar University channel, pointed out in the video above that recent data and reports from the Federal Reserve indicate a sharp economic slowdown in the U.S., with signs pointing to a potential recession. The April 2025 Beige Book paints a picture of an economy stuck in neutral, with growing risks of a downturn . Stagnant activity, emerging layoff concerns, and pervasive uncertainty over trade policy dominate the narrative , while inflation takes a backseat. The labor market’s fragility and sharp declines in manufacturing and services activity suggest the economy is at a critical juncture, potentially transitioning toward recessionary conditions . Policymakers may need to shift focus from inflation to supporting growth, as the data signals significant challenges ahead.  Key points include: Layoffs Emerging: The Fed's Beige Book notes "scattered...

VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ) offers investors a way to track gold prices while holding physical gold, such as London Good Delivery bars. Unique for enabling share redemption for physical gold (bars or coins) starting at one ounce , its simple delivery process involves a delivery application, fees, and broker instructions. Shipping is insured, with choices like 1-ounce coins or 10-ounce bars, and a website calculator aids planning. With an expense ratio of 0.25% and around $1 billion in assets under management, OUNZ is lauded for its flexibility, affordability, and investor-friendly redemption. Key Points Physical Gold Backing: OUNZ is structured to hold physical gold in allocated London Good Delivery bars, aiming to track the spot price of gold. Physical Delivery Option: The key differentiator of OUNZ is its provision for investors to redeem shares for physical gold. Minimum Redemption Quantity: A minimum redemption of one ounce is a significant advantage and aligns with information ...

Can China Defeat America In The Trade War? | Brent Johnson (YouTube link ) In the podcast hosted by Adam Taggart on  Thoughtful Money , Brent Johnson , CEO of Santiago Capital and creator of the "Dollar Milkshake Theory," discusses President Trump's aggressive trade policies in his second term, their implications for global trade, and whether they risk pushing the world toward China, potentially weakening America's global position. The conversation delves into the strategic intent behind Trump's tariffs, the geopolitical and economic context, and the relative strengths and challenges of the U.S. and China. Key Points: Trump's Trade Strategy as a Power Move: Johnson argues that Trump's tariffs and trade policies are not chaotic or poorly thought out but a deliberate, aggressive strategy to reassert U.S. economic dominance. He describes it as "realpolitik backed by financial warfare," leveraging access to the U.S. consumer market—the largest and we...

Tom Lee’s 3 Signals Confirm High Probability “Bottom Is In” & the Stocks Set to Lead  (YouTube link ) Tom Lee, CIO of Fundstrat Capital and portfolio manager of the US Large Cap Granny Shots ETF , provided a market update on 04/24/2025.  Key points: Granny Shots ETF Performance (as of April 17th): Price: $17.46, NAV: $17.47, Total Assets: $826M. Weekly decline: -1.13%, outperforming S&P 500’s -1.49% by 36 basis points. Macro Environment : Markets turbulent since April 2nd ("Tariff Liberation Day"), causing uncertainty, worse than COVID-era volatility. Despite macro concerns (e.g., economic Armageddon fears, end of American exceptionalism, gold up 26%), Lee remains cautiously optimistic. Economy not unraveling; dry powder exists for a V-shaped stock rally, with potential new trade deals. Market Bottom Signals : Zweig Breadth Thrust (April 24th): Bullish reversal signal, historically leading to gains 1, 6, and 12 months later. High Yield Spreads Recovery (April 23rd):...

Jesse Felder: Stocks, Bonds & the U.S. Dollar Are All Breaking (YouTube link) In the video above, Jesse Felder, a financial analyst, conveys a bearish perspective on various asset classes—stocks, bonds, and the U.S. dollar—highlighting concerns about valuations, economic conditions, and policy changes. Here’s a concise breakdown of the key points: S&P 500 (Stocks): Felder is bearish, recommending selling due to high valuations (trading at ~20x forward earnings vs. a historical average of 15x trailing earnings). Forward earnings estimates are too optimistic and likely to decline, especially if a recession is underway or imminent. Insider selling and excessive retail investor optimism (record flows into leveraged ETFs) signal a potential market top. Historical comparisons to the early 2000s tech bubble suggest a possible 50% decline, with the S&P potentially dropping to 4,000 or even 3,000. Recent profit warnings from companies like Walmart, DR Horton, and LVMH indicate weake...

Katie Stockton Breaks Down the Bear Cycle: Technical Analysis You Need Now (YouTube link ) The podcast episode of Market Maverick features host Toby and guest Katie Stockton, a technical analyst, discussing the chaotic stock market environment following a significant volatility spike and a 6-7% single-day market move.  Key points include: Market Volatility and Short-Term Lows: The recent market surge, driven by short covering, indicates a short-term capitulative low but not a cycle bottom . Historical data suggests such moves often lead to bearish outcomes over six months, with a 67% chance of retracing gains . Market Internals: Katie uses aggregated market internal measures (sentiment, breadth, leadership) to assess market health. Extreme readings in some indicators (e.g., new highs vs. lows) suggest a washout, but others, like stocks above their 200-day moving averages, indicate potential for further declines. Bearish Cycle Indicators: Monthly charts show bearish signals, includ...

Felix Zulauf: Build Dry Powder Until Fall & Then Get Long For A 2-Year Rally In Stocks (YouTube link ) Felix Zulauf, a prescient market forecaster, shared his outlook on the current market environment, emphasizing a transitional 2025 with opportunities for investors who stay disciplined. Here are the key points: Market Bottoming and Strategy: Recent market corrections (S&P to 4835, NASDAQ slightly below 17,000) align with Zulauf’s earlier predictions of a 15-20% drop in 2025. He views this as "classic bottoming action," driven by fear and panic. Investors should avoid selling during sharp declines and instead "keep powder dry" to buy during selloffs. Zulauf advises doing the opposite of emotional impulses: buy when markets look weak and avoid chasing bounces. 2025 Outlook: 2025 is a transitional year with volatility and potential retests of lows (possibly S&P 4500) by May or fall. A global recession is likely (>50% chance) in the second half of 2025, ...

Jeffrey Gundlach and Danielle DiMartino Booth on Investing in Uncertain Times (YouTube link ) In the video above, Jeffrey Gundlach and Danielle DiMartino Booth discuss the market's reaction after "Liberation Day." Their analysis focuses on economic indicators, market dynamics, and policy impacts, particularly tariffs. Here's a concise summary of the key points: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook: The market's "bloodless verdict" post-Liberation Day signals expectations of lower earnings, reduced growth, and higher inflation . This trend has been building, as evidenced by the Federal Reserve's prior adjustments to lower GDP forecasts and higher inflation expectations. Risk asset valuations resemble those of 2021, preceding the 2022 bear market, with sentiment akin to the 1999 dot-com bubble, now driven by AI hype instead of dot-com fervor. The market's perceived invincibility has begun to crack. Credit Spreads and Market Stress: Credit spreads...

The End of "Buy the Dip"? With Jesse Felder (YouTube link ) The discussion between Maggie Lake and Jesse Felder, founder of the Felder Report, aired on April 15, 2025, explores why the “buy the dip” strategy is failing and signals a bear market.  Key points: “Buy the Dip” Dead: Felder cites a Wall Street Journal stat showing 2025 as the worst year for “buy the dip” in a century, with last week’s strong rally resembling bear market bounces, not reversals. Bear Market Signals: Massive insider selling in 2024 (e.g., Bezos, Huang) at high valuations (Magnificent Seven at 50x free cash flow) predicted a slowdown. Insiders remain cautious, with no significant buying. Economic Outlook: Corporate leaders anticipate a recession , with earnings revisions driving stock declines. Felder sees a slow, painful grind down, akin to the dot-com bust, not a sharp 2008-style crash. Tariff Uncertainty: Trump’s tariffs (e.g., 145% on China) add unpredictability, but insiders’ bearishness predates ...

More Pain Ahead? With Jared Dillian (YouTube link ) In the discussion between Maggie Lake and Jared Dillian, they analyze the chaotic market conditions as of April 11, 2025, focusing on several key points: Bond Market Turmoil : Dillian highlights the bond market's instability, suggesting China might be selling U.S. bonds in retaliation to Trump’s tariffs, causing yields to spike despite deflationary economic data (e.g., CPI, PPI). He favors going long on bonds into the weekend, anticipating a potential U.S.-China deal that could rally bonds. Market Volatility : The VIX surged to 60, indicating extreme volatility, but has since dropped to 38. Dillian has been selling S&P puts, capitalizing on high option prices, and warns against buying expensive options in such conditions. Stock Market Dynamics : Stocks rallied (NASDAQ +2%, S&P +1.5%), but Dillian believes the market may retest recent lows before a potential rally to 5600-5700, comparing this week’s action to the post-9/11 ...