Thursday, March 7, 2024

Lower Tax Now or Tax-Free Forever? Weighing Roth Conversion vs. Traditional Contribution

2023 tax rates for a single taxpayer (federal income tax rates in the United States are the same for 2023 and 2024)


Scenario: Your taxable income is $12,000, placing you in the 12% tax bracket.

Options:
  • You could contribute more to a retirement account, thereby reducing your taxable income to below $11,001.
  • Alternatively, you could perform a Roth conversion, pushing your taxable income up to the upper limit of $44,725.

Weighing Roth Conversion vs. Traditional Contribution


Here's a breakdown of the pros and cons for each option considering the potential sunset of favorable tax rates in 2025 and the benefits of Roth IRAs:

Option 1: Traditional Retirement Account Contribution

Pros:
  • Lower your tax bill for 2024: This will put more money in your pocket now.
  • Tax-deferred growth: Your contributions and earnings grow tax-deferred within the account.

Cons:
  • Tax on withdrawal: When you withdraw the money in retirement, you'll pay income tax at your then-current tax rate.
  • RMDs: After reaching age 72, you'll be required to take minimum withdrawals (RMDs) from your traditional IRA, which can push you into a higher tax bracket.
  • Future tax rates: If tax rates increase in the future, you might end up paying more in taxes than you would now.


Option 2: Roth Conversion
Pros:
  • Lock in today's potentially lower tax rate: By converting to a Roth IRA, you pay taxes on the converted amount now at the current (potentially lower) rate. This guarantees tax-free withdrawals in retirement regardless of future tax rates.
  • Tax-free withdrawals: Qualified withdrawals from a Roth IRA, including both contributions and earnings, are tax-free in retirement.
  • No RMDs: Unlike traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs don't have required minimum distributions (RMDs). You can leave the money growing tax-free and withdraw it as needed in retirement.
  • No limits: While there are income limits on Roth contributions, there have been no such limits for Roth conversions, making this a popular strategy for high-income investors.
Cons:
  • Higher tax bill for 2024: Converting to a Roth IRA will increase your taxable income for 2024 and potentially put you in a higher tax bracket this year.
  • Reduced access to funds in the short term: The converted amount becomes locked in the Roth IRA and subject to contribution withdrawal rules (penalty-free access to contributions only) until you reach retirement age (59 ½ with a 5-year holding period).


Choosing Between the Options


The best option depends on your individual circumstances and risk tolerance. Here are some factors to consider:
  • Your age: If you're young and have a long time horizon until retirement, the tax benefits of a Roth IRA can be more significant due to the potential for tax-free growth over a longer period.
  • Your expected future tax bracket: If you believe tax rates will be higher in retirement, a Roth IRA conversion can be advantageous by locking in the potentially lower current rate.
  • Your current and future financial needs: Consider if you need immediate access to the funds. Traditional IRAs offer more flexibility in this regard.
  • Considering a Roth conversion before moving? If your new state taxes retirement income more (e.g., moving from Texas to California), converting now can save on future taxes.

Conclusion


While knowing the tax rate range is a good starting point, tax planning can get complex. Consider consulting a tax professional for personalized advice based on your specific financial situation.

References

Saturday, March 2, 2024

Can Goldman Sachs' Conviction List Help You Make Money?



Newsquawk reported on March 1st, 2024 that Goldman Sachs removed AAPL from its Conviction List.

Conviction Buy List of Goldman Sachs 


Goldman Sachs offers a curated list of 20-25 stocks they believe hold strong buying potential, known as the Conviction Buy List. These stocks are updated monthly, reflecting changes in the market. Analysts continuously evaluate companies and add or remove them from the list based on their outlook.

Beyond Just Buys: A Balanced Approach

Goldman Sachs also creates a Conviction Sell List to highlight stocks they believe may underperform the market. This balanced approach allows investors to consider both buying opportunities and potential risks.

Diversification Across Industries

The Conviction Buy List spans various sectors, giving investors exposure to a range of industries. From technology and healthcare to finance, consumer goods, and more, the list offers a diverse selection of potential investments.

Conviction List as of 02/01/2024


This is the updated Conviction List as of February 01, 2024, with their upside percentage projection:[2]
  • Constellation Brands Inc. A (STZ) - % upside: 18
  • Target Corp. (TGT) - % upside: 27
  • Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) - % upside: 39
  • Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) - % upside: 18
  • Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) - % upside: 14
  • Simon Property Group (SPG) - % upside: 20
  • Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) - % upside: 6
  • Quanterix Corp. (QTRX) - % upside: 58
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX) - % upside: 29
  • Installed Building Products (IBP) - % upside: 11
  • JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) - % upside: 13
  • PPG Industries Inc. (PPG) - % upside: 22
  • Parker Hannifin Corp. (PH) - % upside: 19
  • Textron Inc. (TXT) - % upside: 22
  • Chevron Corp. (CVX) - % upside: 22
  • First Solar Inc. (FSLR) - % upside: 88
  • The Southern Company (SO) - % upside: 18
  • Apple (AAPL) - % upside: 21
  • Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) - % upside: 29
  • Cintas Corp. (CTAS) - % upside: 11
  • Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) - % upside: 2
  • TE Connectivity (TEL) - % upside: 23

Conviction List as of 03/01/2024

This is the updated Conviction List as of March 01, 2024:[3]
  • Amgen Inc (AMGN) - New price target: $350
  • Monday.com (MNDY) - New price target: $270
  • Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) - New price target: $292
  • Constellation Brands Inc. A (STZ
  • Target Corp. (TGT)
  • Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY)
  • Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF
  • Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL)
  • Simon Property Group (SPG
  • Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) 
  • Quanterix Corp. (QTRX
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX) 
  • Installed Building Products (IBP
  • JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT
  • PPG Industries Inc. (PPG
  • Parker Hannifin Corp. (PH
  • Textron Inc. (TXT
  • Chevron Corp. (CVX
  • First Solar Inc. (FSLR
  • The Southern Company (SO
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN
  • Cintas Corp. (CTAS
  • Nvidia Corp. (NVDA)
  • TE Connectivity (TEL)

References

  1. The Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List Seeks to Guide Investors Toward Profitability
  2. Target in, JPMorgan out of Goldman’s conviction list
  3. Apple Sinks After Wall Street Titan Pulls Magnificent 7 Stock From Conviction List

Unlocking Price Insights: A Guide to Anchored VWAP in TradingView

Standard VWAP vs Anchored VWAP


Anchored VWAP in TradingView Explained


Anchored VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) is a technical analysis tool available in TradingView for stocks and other financial instruments. It's a variation of the standard VWAP that offers more flexibility for analysis.

The formula for Anchored VWAP is:
Anchored VWAP Formula = Σ(Price x Volume) / ΣVolume 
Understanding Supply and Demand with the AVWAP:

The AVWAP helps traders understand supply and demand, key factors influencing market prices. It considers volume, price, and time to create a line that moves up with high demand and down with high supply.

This is especially useful for swing traders and long-term traders (not day traders) who focus on these broader trends.  Read [1] for more details. 

Anchored VWAP full walkthrough – what is AVWAP? (YouTube link)

Key Facts


Benefits of Anchored VWAP:
  • Targeted Analysis: You can analyze the VWAP based on a specific event or period, like a breakout point or earnings announcement.
  • Flexibility: Compares the current price to the average price since your chosen anchor point, potentially indicating buying and selling pressure.

How to Use Anchored VWAP:
  • Find the Anchored VWAP tool: Look for it in the "Drawing Tools" section of TradingView.
  • Set the Anchor Point: Click on the chart where you want the calculation to begin.
  • Analyze the VWAP Line: The line will show the average price weighted by volume since your chosen anchor point.

When to Use Anchored VWAP
  • Identifying potential breakouts from established price ranges.
  • Analyzing post-earnings performance compared to the pre-earnings VWAP.
  • Evaluating price movements relative to significant events.

Limitations:
  • Not a perfect predictor of future prices.
  • Use it alongside other technical and fundamental analysis for a comprehensive understanding.


Example


The chart above displays an Anchored VWAP for FXI alongside an OBV indicator in the lower panel. To set an anchor point in Anchored VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) and conduct targeted analysis, follow these steps:
  1. Identify a specific price level or event that you want to use as your anchor point. 
    • This could be a significant high, low, gap, earnings announcement, or any other relevant point in time.
  2. Select the Anchored VWAP Tool:
    • On TradingView platform, find the Anchored VWAP tool (see the diagram below).
    • Click on it to activate the drawing tool.
  3. Click on the Chart:
    • Click on the specific candlestick or price level that corresponds to your chosen anchor point.
    • This will set the starting point for your Anchored VWAP calculation.
  4. View the Anchored VWAP Line:
    • The VWAP line will instantly calculate and appear on your chart, anchored to the selected reference point.
    • The line will dynamically adjust based on volume and price movements from the anchor point.
  5. Analyze the Anchored VWAP:
    • Use the anchored VWAP line as a dynamic support/resistance level.
    • Observe how price reacts around these levels.
    • Look for potential trend changes or reversals when the price crosses above or below the anchored VWAP line.
Remember that:
  • The anchor point is crucial for effective analysis. Choose it carefully based on your trading strategy and the context of the market. 
  • You can often customize its appearance (color, line style, etc.).

Launch the Anchored VWAP tool in TradingView

Anchored VWAP: How To Use This POWERFUL Indicator (YouTube link)

References

  1. The Complete Guide to Anchored VWAP Indicator