Travel to Financial Success

Figure 1.  Percent of 10-Yield Curve Inverted (Courtesy: Real Investment Advice ) The inversion of the yield curve is typically seen to herald a recession , as investors switch money to longer-term bonds due to pessimism over the economic outlook. Those fears are growing as policy makers around the world pledge further monetary tightening to tame rising consumer prices. When the number of  inverted yield curves  exceeds 60%,  as it is today (i.e., Nov 2022),  a recession in the US is coming soon (see  Figure 1 ). History shows us that the Fed  hasn’t been able to conclude its hiking cycle  any time  before inflation-adjusted policy rates reached a full 200 basis points.  For the record, that rate is now (i.e., on 11/25/2022) -90 basis points. [48] Video 1.   Possibility of a Soft Landing (YouTube  link ) Recession Watch Over the weekend of 12/03/2022, Bloomberg commented that: Fed staff have put chances of a recession at...

Figure 1. 3 Parts of a Cash Flow (CF) statement Based on @MnkeDaniel , a Cash Flow (CF) Statement is divided into three parts: [3] CF from Operating Activities CF from Investing Activities CF from Financing Activities Figure 2. Free cashflow to equity vs. free cashflow to the firm Free Cash Flow (FCF) Professor Aswath Damodaran believes that Free Cash Flow (FCF) is one of the most dangerous terms in finance. In [1], he tries to clarify what free cash flows are trying to measure, how they get used in investing and valuation, and the measurement questions that can cause measurement divergences. Professor believes that any measurement of free cash flow has to begin with a definition of to whom those cash flows accrue: [1] Since a business can raise capital from owners (equity) and lenders (debt) , the free cash flows that you compute can be to just the equity investors in the business, in which case it is free cash flow to equity, or to all capital providers in the business, as free...

Metals needed by green technology to replace fossil fuels On Twitter, @BrianGitt had shared the below comments: [1] The world doesn’t have enough mines operating or planned to replace fossil fuels with wind turbines, solar panels, & battery tech. Opening a new mine takes 16 years on average according to  @IEA . Based on a study from S&P Global, it also concludes that: [3] Copper demand will double by 2035 and continue to grow thereafter. On the supply side, it finds how challenging that will be, whether on the basis of current trends or with an unprecedented acceleration of supply from mining and recycling. Finally, according to researcher Benchmark Mineral Intelligence , the world will need: [5] Nearly 60 new lithium mines and plants to feed the growing demand for the shift away from fossil fuels. References Is There Enough Metal to Replace Oil? The problem with lithium is that it’s extremely difficult to recover , American Lithium CEO says The Future of Copper Will the...

Video 1.  What to Expect in 2023 - Stanley Druckenmiller's Market Prediction (YouTube link )  What Stock Market Happened in 2000? During June 2022 interview at Sohn Investment Conference, Stan Druckenmiller describes how after FOMOing into equities near March 2000 peak, he quickly lost ~$2-3 billion and went on multi-month vacation.   Figure 1.  S&P 500 price from 1996 to 2009 (Courtesy: Yahoo Finance) Upon his Sep 2000 return, in Druckenmiller's words: "I open newspaper and can't believe it. NASDAQ has recovered like 70-80% of losses and S&P 500 is almost back to its highs.  But oil, interest rates, & dollar are up ...this has always been terrible for earnings looking forward. " In the interview, Druckenmiller proceeds to describe how he bought Treasuries and made 40% in Q4 2000 betting that the US would go into a recession . After the above history shared by  @MessinaLadder , he had commented that: My bet is that while the periods are ...

Methodology  Moneywise.com combined each state's retirement rankings from WalletHub, MoneyRates and The Motley Fool to create scores out of a possible 150 and make sure you know not to end up in the rotisserie-level heat of Nevada. Factors like cost of living , availability of health care and the local lifestyle can make or break the place where you choose to settle down. Every year, new data is released on which states are best for retirees that take these factors into consideration. The Worst States for Retirement The higher the score ,  the lower the state ranks as a retirement destination . Washington (Score: 136) Alaska (133) Nevada (123) Texas (121) Louisiana (118) New York (115) California (113) Illinois (111) Hawaii (110) New Mexico (110) Tennessee (108) Georgia (108) Maryland (100) New Jersey (99) Oklahoma (96) Oregon (94) Colorado (93) Massachusetts (90) Arizona (80) Arkansas (78) North Carolina (77) Michigan (76) South Dakota (75) Mississippi (69) Minnesota (68) ...