Saturday, October 20, 2018

Technical Analysis—200-day Moving Average

The ability of a stock to be above its 200-day moving average can be considered a fairly reliable indicator for positive future returns.

A breadth indicator that measures the percentage of stocks above a specific moving average. Many indicators have been created on the concept of market breadth. For example, a good market breadth indicator is $SPXA200R which measures:
The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving averages 

Figure 1

Interpretation of $SPXA200R


$SPXA200R is a medium to long-term indicator.  In general, you can use it to:
  • Buy - when it moves above 30% from below and 
  • Sell - when it moves below 70% from above

 

Figure 2.  Major corrections have been marked by extended time below the 50% level of $SPXA200R (Source: @DKellerCMT)

More on 200-DMA


In addition to look at $SPXA200R, 200-day moving average (DMA) can be also used in different ways.  For example, you can look at:[1]

The direction of 200-DMA

  • If it's rising, it's a signal of a long-term uptrend, and vice versa for a downward-sloping 200-DMA
  • In [2], the author has proposed below trading strategy which could potentially produce an annual return of 8.55% :
    • The system only buys the SPDR S&P 500 when it’s in an uptrend, and it remains in cash when the ETF is in a downtrend. 
    • The system makes any buy or sell decisions every 4 weeks, so trading expenses should be negligible.
    • The market is considered to be in:
      • An uptrend if the slope in the 200-day moving average in the SPDR S&P 500 is positive in the past 10 days
      • goog_98465206An downtrend if the slope in the 200-day moving average in the SPDR S&P 500 is negative in the past 10 days

The distance of a stock is trading above or below its 200-day 

  • A good way to gauge how extended it is from its "normal" trading range
  • Especially vulnerable are stocks that are trading far above their 200-day moving average.  For example, on 05/31/2017,  Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is 22.80% above its 200-day, Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) is at 20.39%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) is at 19.05%.

References

  1.  S&P 500 Stocks Farthest Above And Below 200-DMAs
  2. Market Correction: Buying Opportunity Or Time To Sell?
  3. Technical Analysis—Percent Above Moving Average (Travel To Wellness)
  4. Stock Market—Primary Trend & Secondary Trend (Travel To Wellness)

Monday, October 15, 2018

Technical Analysis—Put-Call Chart

In [1], Mark Arbeter has shown a Put-Call Chart using $CPCE with 5-day Moving Average to smooth out the data:


Put/Call Ratio


The Put/Call Ratio is an indicator that shows put volume relative to call volume. Put options are used to hedge against market weakness or bet on a decline. Call options are used to hedge against market strength or bet on an advance. The Put/Call Ratio is above 1 when put volume exceeds call volume and below 1 when call volume exceeds put volume. Typically, this indicator is used to gauge market sentiment. Sentiment is deemed excessively bearish when the Put/Call Ratio is trading at relatively high levels, and excessively bullish when at relatively low levels. Chartists can apply moving averages and other indicators to smooth the data and derive signals.

You can read StockCharts article for its interpretation.

$CPCE Charts

5-Day MA

Using similar concept except that we have inverted $CPCE, we have charted $ONE:$CPCE with the data on 10/19/2018 as below:




Video 1.  Put/call Ratio 101 (YouTube link)

References

  1. S&P 500 Update: October Correction or Bear Market For Stocks?
  2. PUT / CALL RATIO - CBOE (PCC chart)