Inverted Yield Curve , Recession, and Market Top
When will stocks peak out? That's the million dollar investment question. Based on The Mad Hedge Fund Trader , who has 12,098 followers on Seeking Alpha , his predication of stock top could be on: Friday, May 10, 2019 at 4:00 PM EST His predication is based on the following reasoning: Inverted yield curve could be created in December 2018 Assume that the Fed continues “normalizing” interest rates by raising 25 basis points a quarter for the next five quarters. This has a recession beginning 14 months after the December 15, 2018 Fed meeting, or February 2020 . Over the past 100 years, inverted yield curves have had an average life of 14 months, within a range of nine to 19 months . Historically, stock markets peak exactly 7.2 months before a recession , so this takes us back to August 2019 . Back out three more months for a “ Sell in May and go away ” effect Bear markets usually begin on Black Mondays Because investors are prone to digest deteriorating ...