Posts

Showing posts from 2018

Technical Analysis—Ratio of the SPX to the 10-year Treasury Volatility

Image
The ratio of the SPX to the 10-year Treasury volatility (SPX:10y T volatility) demonstrates a pattern where down-spikes correspond to local minima in the S&P 500 (vertical blue dotted-lines). The chart below (click to enlarge) shows that the down-spike in the ratio has reached the up-sloping trend-line. This increases the chances of a bounce in the SPX. $SPX (11/01/2018) References SPX:10y T Vol

Technical Analysis—200-day Moving Average

Image
The ability of a stock to be above its 200-day moving average can be considered a fairly reliable indicator for positive future returns. A breadth indicator that measures the percentage of stocks above a specific moving average. Many indicators have been created on the concept of market breadth. For example, a good market breadth indicator is $SPXA200R which measures: The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving averages  Figure 1 Interpretation of $SPXA200R $SPXA200R is a medium to long-term indicator.  In general, you can use it to: Buy - when it moves above 30% from below and  Sell - when it moves below 70% from above   Figure 2.  Major corrections have been marked by extended time below the 50% level of $SPXA200R (Source: @DKellerCMT ) More on 200-DMA In addition to look at $SPXA200R, 200-day moving average (DMA) can be also used in different ways.  For example, you can look at: [1] The direction of...

Technical Analysis—Put-Call Chart

Image
In [1], Mark Arbeter has shown a Put-Call Chart using $CPCE with 5-day Moving Average to smooth out the data: Put/Call Ratio The Put/Call Ratio is an indicator that shows put volume relative to call volume. Put options are used to hedge against market weakness or bet on a decline. Call options are used to hedge against market strength or bet on an advance. The Put/Call Ratio is above 1 when put volume exceeds call volume and below 1 when call volume exceeds put volume. Typically, this indicator is used to gauge market sentiment. Sentiment is deemed excessively bearish when the Put/Call Ratio is trading at relatively high levels, and excessively bullish when at relatively low levels. Chartists can apply moving averages and other indicators to smooth the data and derive signals. You can read StockCharts article for its interpretation. $CPCE Charts 5-Day MA Using similar concept except that we have inverted $CPCE, we have charted $ONE:$CPCE with the data on 10/19/20...

Frisco is #1 on Money Magazine's "Best Places to Live" List

Image
Frisco is #1 on Money Magazine's "Best Places to Live" List Celebrate at our Upcoming Town Hall Meeting on October 1 There's no place like home and, according to Money Magazine, the best place to live in America is Frisco, Texas! To make this year's list, Money looked for cities with good schools, strong economies, low crime, and a strong housing market. They also sought out diversity, noting the "economic and cultural benefits it gives a community". Here's one excerpt from Money's  online article  about its selection process: "While there’s a lot to love about Frisco, part of its appeal is the city’s relatively low cost of living compared with its higher incomes and booming job growth. A typical Frisco family could pay off a new home in less than half the time it would take a Bostonian one to do so." Click here to read Money's profile of Frisco . Villas   at   the   Lakes  on Legacy ...

We Are the World

Image
We Are the World Lyrics There comes a time When we heed a certain call When the world must come together as one There are people dying Oh, and it's time to lend a hand to life The greatest gift of all We can't go on Pretending day-by-day That someone, somewhere soon make a change We're all a part of God's great big family And the truth, you know, love is all we need We are the world We are the children We are the ones who make a brighter day, so let's start giving There's a choice we're making We're saving our own lives It's true we'll make a better day, just you and me Oh, send them your heart So they know that someone cares And their lives will be stronger and free As God has shown us by turning stones to bread And so we all must lend a helping hand We are the world We are the children We are the ones who make a brighter day, so let...

Retirees Want More Dogs and Gardens

Image
Source: “ Retirees Want More Dogs and Gardens, Less Golf and Pickle Ball ,” John Burns Real Estate Consulting

Inverted Yield Curve , Recession, and Market Top

Image
When will stocks peak out?  That's the million dollar investment question. Based on The Mad Hedge Fund Trader , who has 12,098 followers on Seeking Alpha , his predication of stock top could be on: Friday, May 10, 2019 at 4:00 PM EST His predication is based on the following reasoning: Inverted yield curve could be created in December 2018 Assume that the Fed continues “normalizing” interest rates by raising 25 basis points a quarter for the next five quarters. This has a recession beginning 14 months after the December 15, 2018 Fed meeting, or February 2020 . Over the past 100 years, inverted yield curves have had an average life of 14 months, within a range of nine to 19 months . Historically, stock markets peak exactly 7.2 months before a recession , so this takes us back to August 2019 . Back out three more months for a “ Sell in May and go away ” effect Bear markets usually begin on Black Mondays Because investors are prone to digest deteriorating ...

Check If You Have a Gas Leak after Roof Replacement

Image
Watch out — if you have your roof newly replaced, read further because you could have a potential gas leak issue in your hand.   It has happened to me and it could happen to you too. In some older houses, it has their gas line attached directly under the roof while roof contractors could have used nail guns in the replacement.  Then the chance is high that you could have a potential gas leak problem. Other factors contributing to damaged gas lines include: Pipes becoming exposed after extreme weather Ground shifting, or  Normal wear and tear. How to Recognize a Gas Leak? You can detect leaking natural gas in a number of ways: Smell the distinctive odor (e.g. rotten egg smeall)  that make natural gas detectable Listen A hissing or whistling sound near a gas appliance or a roaring sound near a pipeline Look  Blowing dust Bubbling water  Dead vegetation near a gas line If you notice a patch of dead vegetat...

Changing Times at Old Age

Image
A friend of mine turned 68. I asked him what's changing? He sent me following lines: Yes, I am changing. After loving my parents, my siblings, my spouse, my children, my friends, now I have started loving myself. Yes, I am changing. I just realized that I am not “Atlas”. The world does not rest on my shoulders. Yes, I am changing. I now stopped bargaining with vegetable and fruit vendors. After all, a few dollars more is not going to burn a hole in my pocket but it might help the poor fellow save for his daughter’s school fees. Yes, I am changing. I pay the taxi driver without waiting for the change. The extra money might bring a smile on his face. After all he is toiling much harder for a living than me. Yes, I am changing. I stopped telling the elderly that they've already narrated that story many times. After all, the story makes them walk down the memory lane and relive the past. Yes, I am changing. I've learnt not to correct people even when I know they are wrong....

Amarantine by Irish Musician Enya

Image
Amarantine is taken from ancient Greek and means everlasting or immortal (the same as the amaranth flower). You know when you gave your love away It opens your heart, everything is new And you know time will always find a way To let your heart believe it's true You know love is everything you say A whisper, a word, promises you give You feel it in the heartbeat of the day You know this is the way love is Amarantine Amarantine Amarantine Love is always love Amarantine Amarantine Amarantine Love is always love You know love may sometimes make you cry So let the tears go, they will flow away For you know love will always let you fly How far a heart can fly away Amarantine Amarantine Amarantine Love is always love Amarantine Amarantine Amarantine Love is always love Amarantine Amarantine Amarantine Love is always love You know when love's shining in your eyes It may be the stars fal...

What to Expect at Stock Market Top—a Drop in Consumer Spending

Image
(Updated 05/01/2018) Major automakers on Tuesday posted lower new vehicle sales in April as consumer demand continued to weaken following a lengthy boom for the industry. [7] Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of gross-domestic-product growth.  When real income increases,  the consumer spend more.  When interest rates increase, the consumer spend less—because it costs the consumer more to borrow, so they step back from buying. If consumer spending in the U.S. economy starts to struggle, it will start to show up in the corporate earnings of companies on key stock indices that are currently able to buy back their own shares and cut expenses to make their numbers appear better.  At the market top , we need to monitor consumer spending closely .  When consumers are cutting back on discretionary purchases to preserve other spending, a market top could be forming and a recession could be imminent. Personal Savings Today, personal saving in th...

Winter Song

Image
Bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum Bum bum bum bum bum bum Bum bum bum bum bum bum This is my winter song to you. The storm is coming soon, It rolls in from the sea My voice; a beacon in the night. My words will be your light, To carry you to me. Is love alive? Is love alive? Is love They say that things just cannot grow Beneath the winter snow, Or so I have been told. They say were buried far, Just like a distant star I simply cannot hold. Is love alive? Is love alive? Is love alive? This is my winter song. December never felt so wrong, 'Cause you're not where you belong; Inside my arms. Bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum Bum bum bum bum bum bum Bum bum bum bum bum bum I still believe in summer days. The seasons always change And life will find a way. I'll be your harvester of light And send it out tonight So we can start again. Is love alive? Is love alive? Is love alive? This is my winter song. December never felt so...

30 Rules to Simplify Your Life

Image
C. Michael Gibson MD tweeted on Twitter:

John Denver — Sunshine On My Shoulders

Image
Lyrics Sunshine on my shoulders makes me happy Sunshine in my eyes can make me cry Sunshine on the water looks so lovely Sunshine almost always makes me high If I had a day that I could give you I'd give to you the day just like today If I had a song that I could sing for you I'd sing a song to make you feel this way Sunshine on my shoulders makes me happy Sunshine in my eyes can make me cry Sunshine on the water looks so lovely Sunshine almost always makes me high Sunshine almost all the time makes me high Sunshine almost always 

Stock Trading—First Half Hour vs Last Half Hour

Image
Credit: @BarChart ; read more patterns here In technical analysis, the open and close price of a market/stock price are important.  For example, Candlestick Analysis is mostly focused on the relationship between the open and the close. The open reflects the reaction to news overnight or pre-market .  The close reflects the reaction after the open . In general, a move higher after a weak open is positive and a move lower after a strong open is negative.  As a rule of thumb, you can use Candlestick to: Look for bullish hollow red at the market bottom Look for bearish solid black at the market top In this article, we will discuss the significance of first half hour in the opening and last half hour in the closing of stock trading. Accumulation and Distribution Here we will use Accumulation/Distribution as general terms (vs. a momentum  indicator ), which means whether investors are generally "accumulating," or buying, or "distributing," or selling, a cert...