Howard Marks, the American investor and writer, co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management—the world’s largest player in distressed securities—turns his gaze away from the financial mechanics of AI to its deeper, more troubling societal consequences in a Bloomberg interview. His tone grows grave as he admits, “I’m not worried about my portfolio. I’m worried about society.”
At the heart of his concern lies not merely diminished earnings, but the specter of a permanent, purposeless underclass—fuel for social upheaval and a profound crisis of meaning.
Highlights of Howard Marks’ Societal Concerns
1. The Catastrophic Scale of Technological Unemployment
Marks dismisses the familiar optimism that “new jobs will always appear,” warning that AI represents a uniquely destructive force:
- The Internet Era as a Warning: The last disruption—driven by the internet and offshoring—did not spike unemployment but eroded job quality. Stable middle-class roles gave way to lower-paid warehouse, delivery, and gig-economy work.
- AI Will Be Far Worse: Unlike past waves, AI threatens both the remaining middle-class cognitive jobs and the low-skill roles that once absorbed displaced workers. The result is an employment crisis of unprecedented scale.
2. The Crisis of Purpose and Dignity
For Marks, the loss of work is not merely financial—it is existential:
- Work Provides Meaning: Jobs deliver structure, dignity, self-respect, and a social role—intangibles that money cannot replace.
- The UBI Illusion: Even if Universal Basic Income solves the paycheck problem, Marks fears it will leave millions psychologically adrift, fueling widespread purposelessness.
- His Greatest Fear: A permanent underclass of idle people, stripped of meaning, leading inevitably to social instability and unrest.
3. A Direct Link to Despair and Social Tragedy
Marks draws a stark line between past economic dislocations and present social crises:
- Historical Evidence: Communities devastated by automation and offshoring in manufacturing and mining saw surges in opioid addiction, despair, and declining life expectancy.
- AI’s Looming Impact: He believes the next wave of AI-driven joblessness will magnify these tragedies on a far larger scale.
Conclusion
While Marks acknowledges AI’s long-term productivity benefits, he insists the societal risks of transition—tens of millions facing a crisis of meaning—are deeper and more dangerous than any financial challenge.
